SMM Analysis On China September Refined Nickel Production And October Forecast

In September 2024, national refined nickel production increased by 7.7% MoM and 48.3% YoY, with cumulative growth at 39.24% YoY. Regarding the domestic refined nickel production increase pace, although some nickel companies hold cautious expectations for production growth, the overall market increment remains considerable. On one hand, some new projects launched this year are experiencing a production ramp-up. Production is expected to have some growth potential moving forward. On the other hand, a series of favorable macro policies in late September boosted sentiment in the futures market, leading to an increase in futures prices around the National Day holiday, further bolstering market confidence. Despite concerns about strong expectations but weak reality for short-term nickel prices, the market overall still expects some upward movement in nickel prices in the fourth quarter. In October, under this expectation, national refined nickel production is expected to rise by 0.95% MoM and 32% YoY, with cumulative growth at 38.4% YoY.