Aluminum cost: coal pitch prices increased, pressuring prebaked anodes prices [SMM analysis]

Petroleum coke shipments were moderate in recent days. As downstream stocking has ended, shipments slowed down, and coke prices generally stabilized.

China Offshore Bitumen and Zhoushan Petrochemical inched lower by 50-70 yuan/mt, while Huizhou and Taishan Petrochemical kept prices basically stable. Coke prices in northeast China were mainly stable last week; Sinopec's shipments increased last week, and coke prices were generally stable. In terms of private refineries, coke prices generally remained stable. Coke prices fluctuated by around 50 yuan/mt, and downstream companies purchased only as needed. As of last Friday, average petroleum coke prices at private refineries were approximately 1,762 yuan/ton, down 2.49% WoW.

Coal pitch prices moved upwards last week. As of last Friday, SMM recorded an average coal pitch price of 5,565 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.54% WoW.

Overall, the cost-end support for prebaked anodes was relatively strong last week.

Raw material

Prebaked anode companies produced steadily according to orders, but some companies were still suspended due to profitability and environmental protection. In addition, as new capacity was put into operation in Shandong, the supply of prebaked anodes has improved.

Domestic operating aluminum production capacity fluctuated slightly in the week, mainly as an aluminum smelter in Inner Mongolia suffered power outrage on February 26. The incident had little impact on industry output, and market concerns fell back after the early trading on February 27.

There was no increase in power in Yunnan and other regions last week. Local aluminum companies mainly maintained stable production. Regarding future production resumption expectations, local aluminum companies in Yunnan reported that there were no clear notice on production resumption and power supply. It is expected that Yunnan is unlikely to resume production in March.

Brief comment:

Although the petroleum coke prices fell slightly in the week, coal pitch prices increased significantly, leaving prebaked anode companies under enormous cost pressure. Profit margins further shrank, and some companies are suffering loss. A large aluminium smelter in Shandong kept its prebaked anode benchmark purchase price for March unchanged at 3,878 yuan/mt in cash and 3,907 yuan/mt by acceptance. SMM will keep a close eye on the operating rates of prebaked anode producers and downstream aluminium smelters.