According to SMM analysis, the current copper concentrate spot market is overall characterized by an excess of supply over demand, with fewer inquiries from smelters compared to offers from traders. Buyers believe that multiple bullish factors are supporting a strong upward trend in TC prices.
These factors include the Peruvian authorities extending the state of emergency in mining corridors by 30 days, the delay in the resumption of feed for the capacity restart project at a smelter in North China until next year, the potential large-scale shipment of QB2 copper mine by the end of the second quarter to China, and the possibility of material sell-offs due to extended maintenance duration at a smelter in Central China, which could deplete raw material inventories.
The buyers' expectations are also aligned with the anticipation of TCs for copper concentrate peaking in the fourth quarter. According to SMM statistics, as of July 21, the copper concentrate inventory in the five major ports was 607,000 mt, a decrease of 29,000 mt from the previous week.
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