SHANGHAI, Feb 9 (SMM) - SMM data showed that China’s copper cathode output stood at 853,300 mt in January, down 1.9% from the previous month but up 4.3% from the same period in 2022. The actual output was 41,700 mt lower than the expected 895,000 mt.
The reasons are as follows: 1. The impact of maintenance carried out by a smelter in east China was greater than expected. 2. The production expansion of new smelters in central and south China was lower than expected. 3. The operating rates declined compared with December 2022 due to the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday. In addition, the short statistical cycle underestimated the actual output of several smelters.
In February, the two smelters that overhauled before will resume normal production. SMM estimates that they will contribute an output increase of more than 30,000 mt. As most smelters have resumed normal production after the Chinese New Year holiday, the output in February will increase obviously. However, the less production days in February, the slow release of new capacity and tight raw material supply still affects the output.
To sum up, SMM expects that China’s copper cathode output will stand at 899,300 mt in February, up 46,000 mt or 5.39% month-on-month (MoM) and 7.6% year-on-year (YoY) based on the current production schedules. The output is estimated at 1. 75 million mt in January and February, up 5.97% or 98,800 mt year-on-year.
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