Goldman Sachs (Goldman Sachs) expects commodities prices in Russia, the main producer, to rise after the west imposed heavier political and economic sanctions, and raised its short-term forecast for Brent crude prices.
Western sanctions will be significantly tightened after announcing that some Russian banks will be banned from using the SWIFT international settlement system and targeting Russia's central bank reserves, Goldman Sachs analysts such as Damien Courvalin and Jeff Currie said in a report on Sunday. While energy and food trading are still allowed, payment barriers should exacerbate the already obvious commodity supply shocks.
Analysts say commodity markets face not only the difficulty of making payments for Russian exports, but also the risk that Russian commodities will eventually be subject to western sanctions.
"given concerns about further military escalation, energy sanctions or a cease-fire, the range of recent commodity prices has become extreme." Goldman Sachs said. "We expect commodity prices to rise as a result, with Russia as the main producer, including oil, European gas, as well as aluminium, palladium, nickel, wheat and corn."
Raise the one-month price estimate of Brent crude to $115
Goldman Sachs raised its one-month price forecast for Brent crude to $115 a barrel from the previous $95, adding that "further escalation or extended interruptions pose significant upward risks to oil prices."
Brent crude futures rose again above $100 a barrel on Monday as the crisis deepened in Russia and Ukraine, while (WTI) futures for West Texas Intermediate were close to $96 a barrel.
The role of gold as the ultimate currency is expected to be highlighted.
Goldman Sachs said: "the recent escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine has brought a clear risk of stagflation to the overall economy, mainly driven by higher energy prices, which strengthens our confidence that gold prices will rise in the coming months." and our target price of $2150 per ounce. "
Spot gold rose above $1900 an ounce on Monday and is on track for its best monthly performance since May.
"if restrictions on Russia's central bank's access to its offshore reserves prompt it to use its huge domestic gold reserves to continue its foreign trade, then the unique role of gold as the ultimate currency may be clear," Goldman Sachs said.
