Citic Securities: the "starting gun" of the landing industry in the first batch of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle demonstration cities sounded.

The flowers fall in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, and the policy continues to heat up.

Beijing Finance official account released on August 23: recently, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei hydrogen fuel cell vehicle demonstration urban agglomeration led by Beijing has been jointly approved as the first batch of demonstration urban agglomeration by five ministries and commissions of the country. During the four-year demonstration period, the five ministries will reward the shortlisted urban agglomerations in accordance with the achievement of their goals. Beijing Daxing District United Haidian, Changping and other six districts, as well as Tianjin Binhai New area, Baoding City, Tangshan City, Binzhou City, Shandong Province, Zibo City, a total of 12 cities (districts) to form a demonstration city cluster. The list of other urban agglomerations is expected to be announced, and industry policies are gradually heating up.

The subsidy goes a step further, and the "starting gun" of the industry goes off.

In September last year, five ministries issued the Circular on the demonstration Application of fuel Cell vehicles, defining the principles and framework of future subsidies for the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry chain, but the list of model cities has not been landed for a long time. On the basis of last week's hydrogen energy industry plan, Beijing took the lead in announcing the shortlist information, showing a positive policy attitude. According to the new subsidy policy, the upper limit of subsidy for each urban agglomeration from 2020 to 2023 is 15 + 200 million yuan. enterprises carry out weight scores according to car sales, stack power and load quality, and participate in subsidy distribution according to the integral ratio. The policy orientation is to encourage enterprises to achieve scale as soon as possible and increase high-power stack and high-load car sales. The gradual landing of the list of model urban agglomerations means that the industry's expectations of subsidies are clearer, equivalent to the sound of the industry "starting gun", the layout direction of enterprises is more clear, and the landing of formal orders will be accelerated.

The growth of market space is clear, and diversified applications highlight the advantage of hydrogen energy.

Previously, it was proposed in the Beijing planning plan that Beijing will promote more than 10, 000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in 2025, and it is planned that the hydrogen energy output value of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei will reach 100 billion yuan in 2025. We expect that the number of promoted vehicles in the urban agglomeration may reach 18-20 000 in 2025. The number of promoted vehicles nationwide may reach 100000, and the market growth space is clear. In addition, the early planning of Beijing also innovated the application scenario of hydrogen energy, including the construction of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei fuel cell heavy truck freight corridor, the replacement of hydrogen fuel forklift truck in cold chain logistics scene, and exploring the demonstration application of hydrogen energy in rail transit, shipping, UAV, medical and other fields. In the future, under the policy goal of "carbon neutralization", it is expected that the advantage of hydrogen energy as an energy conversion carrier will be more prominent, or drive a larger market space.

Risk factors:

The progress of key technologies is lower than expected, and the cost of industrial chain is lower than expected.

Investment strategy:

The list of model urban agglomerations has been announced one after another, which has injected new policy catalysts into the industry. at the same time, the promotion of localization and technological progress have also led to a continuous decline in the cost of the industrial chain, the industrialization of hydrogen energy is accelerating, and the market scale is about to expand. Profitability is not far off.

We recommend companies with active layout and first-mover advantages in all aspects of the hydrogen energy industry chain: Yitong Huatong, the leader of the fuel cell system, Meijin Energy with the layout of the whole industry chain, Dongyue Group with breakthroughs in the proton exchange membrane, a key material for fuel cells, ice wheel environment with sufficient reserves on hydrogen energy compression equipment, Yutong bus and Weichai Power related to vehicle and stack manufacturing, and Baofeng Energy, the forerunner of green hydrogen. At the same time, you can pay attention to the layout of Binhua (hydrogen production + electrolytic cell), Hong Kong stock China Xuyang Group (hydrogen production from coke oven tail gas), CIMC Enrico (hydrogen filling station construction and hydrogen storage bottle production) in this demonstration urban agglomeration.