SMM6 March 16: most of the non-ferrous metals are green in the morning. By midday, international copper fell 1.77%, Shanghai copper fell 1.68%, Shanghai aluminum fell 0.87%, Shanghai lead fell 0.42%, Shanghai zinc rose 0.67%, Shanghai nickel fell 3.57%, Shanghai tin fell 0.46%, nickel, the main contract of Shanghai nickel continued yesterday's night session fatigue and continued low shock, last night around 0: 00, Shanghai nickel dived sharply. With higher-than-expected PPI data released in the US last night, inflation was too fast to cool bulls' trading enthusiasm. There are growing concerns that the Fed is about to narrow the size of its bond buybacks. Shanghai Nickel suddenly dived under the drive of the outer disk, falling directly to around 129000 yuan / ton, falling below the low support before last week.
SMM believes that at present, considering the overall trend of the recent fundamentals of the nickel market, the price is expected to fall further after reaching the 40-day moving average. The focus of nickel trading continues to tilt towards the macro side this cycle, with Thursday's Fed interest rate meeting becoming a key factor in inflation trading. It is estimated that Lunni is 17500-18500 US dollars / ton and Shanghai Nickel is 129000-136000 yuan / ton.
[SMM analysis] the fundamentals of Shanghai Nickel losing 130000 tend to be bullish and the room for further decline is limited.
In terms of black series, threads fell 2.54%, hot coils fell 2.29%, coking coal rose 0.67%, coke rose 0.94%, iron ore fell 1.07%, stainless steel fell 0.46%, thread inventory, the total inventory inflection point has been present, the factory warehouse has changed from a decline to an increase, the social treasury will also usher in the key point of accumulation this week. Yesterday, due to the "double control of energy consumption", Zhejiang EAF Steel Plant was required to limit production by 30% by the end of this month, but Zhejiang EAF thread output is limited, the actual impact is not significant. If there is no new market speculation point, the industry is weak and driven by price shocks are more likely.
Crude oil rose 1.31% in the previous period, and international oil prices rose on Wednesday, with Brent crude rising for the fifth day in a row as falling inventories and recovery in demand boosted investor morale. Analysts point out that everyone is turning to being overly bullish on crude oil prices. The outlook for crude oil demand is very strong as the recovery in the US, Europe and Asia will return demand to pre-epidemic levels in the second half of next year.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose 0.01%, Shanghai silver rose 0.11%, and international gold prices fell slightly on Wednesday as the dollar strengthened. Investors are waiting for the outcome of the Federal Reserve / FED meeting for hints of the exit of economic support measures. Data on Tuesday showed that us retail sales fell more than expected in may, while the producer price index rose 6.6 per cent from a year earlier, the biggest increase since November 2010.
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