(Liu Hao) [magnesium Summit] SMM Information Technology Co., Ltd.

At the 2021 China magnesium Industry chain Summit Forum, Liu Hao, an analyst at SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., explained the supply and demand analysis and price outlook of China's magnesium industry.

Analysis of supply and demand of China's magnesium Industry in 2020

Affected by the negative factors of the epidemic in the first half of the year, the demand for domestic trade and foreign trade was successively frustrated, and manufacturers depressed the price of magnesium, resulting in a continuous decline in magnesium prices. From February to October, the price of magnesium ingots fell by 3000 yuan / ton, down 20%. On October 30, the establishment of Shaanxi Yulin magnesium Industry (Group) to boost market confidence, coupled with the corresponding policy and financial support, magnesium ingot prices rose rapidly. From November to mid-December, magnesium ingot prices rose 3000 yuan to 15700 yuan / ton. Before the Spring Festival, the magnesium ingot futures market was booming, resulting in a shortage of spot supply in the market after the Spring Festival, and the magnesium price continued to rise to 15800 yuan / ton.

The global demand decreased due to the epidemic in 2020, resulting in a decline in the growth rate of magnesium processing materials consumption and a decline in foreign magnesium demand. China's magnesium ingot output was 720000 tons, down 15% from the same period last year.

Magnesium consumption of magnesium alloys is rising against the trend: in 2020, the domestic magnesium consumption of magnesium alloys in China was 187000 tons, an increase of 17000 tons over 2019, accounting for 36% of the national magnesium consumption.

The output of aluminum-magnesium alloy increased: in 2020, the output of aluminum in China was 57.793 million tons, an increase of 8.6% over the same period last year. The demand for magnesium, as the main additive element, increased accordingly, and the magnesium consumption was about 153000 tons, accounting for 29% of the national magnesium consumption.

Strong demand for metal reduction: sponge titanium continues to warm up in the main application areas. In 2020, the total output of sponge titanium was about 110000 tons, an increase of 31.04% over the same period last year, and magnesium consumption was about 93000 tons, accounting for 18% of the national magnesium consumption.

Magnesium powder consumption growth slows down: overcapacity in steel mills, coupled with environmental protection policies to reduce consumption, steel production is facing a pullback in the future, magnesium consumption is about 53000 tons, accounting for 10% of the national coal consumption.

Supply and demand Analysis and Price Prospect of magnesium Industry in China in 2021

According to the average growth rate of magnesium alloy automobile magnesium consumption, under the favorable policy of automobile lightweight, it is estimated that China's magnesium alloy consumption will be 194000 tons in 2021, and the domestic aluminum alloy consumption will be 165000 tons, and the estimated magnesium consumption will be about 360000 tons.

Demand for titanium sponge is strong: demand for titanium sponge is strong in 2020, and production is growing rapidly, and is expected to maintain a growth rate of 6% in 2021.

Steel mill production slowdown: overcapacity of domestic steel mills, coupled with the continued strengthening of environmental protection, the amount of magnesium used for desulphurization will be reduced in the future, and the growth rate will slow down to 6%.

Strong demand for rare earths: high attention in the field of rare earths in 2021, demand for rare earth alloys is expected to maintain a high growth rate of 6 per cent, with an annual magnesium consumption of 37000 tons.

2021 the market demand of magnesium downstream industry is expected to maintain stability: China's downstream consumption of magnesium ingots is expected to be 550000 tons in 2021, an increase of 30,000 tons over 2020, with the growth of magnesium alloy applications as the main driving force accounting for about 30 per cent of the total increment.

Magnesium ingots: China's original magnesium enterprises have increased production recently, and the market supply is expected to be increased in the future, with an estimated output of 74000 tons in April.

Magnesium powder: March is the peak season for foreign trade magnesium powder, which is expected to decline in April compared with April. At the same time, due to the energy consumption reduction policy of steel mills, it is predicted that the actual demand will decrease compared with March, with an estimated output of 10,000 tons in April.

Magnesium alloy: magnesium production orders are relatively fixed. Founder magnesium recently plans to put into operation a magnesium alloy production line with an annual production capacity of 20, 000 tons. China's magnesium alloy production is expected to be 34000 tons in April.

Introduction to the pricing method of SMM magnesium

The meaning of SMM magnesium price:

1. Represents the representative price level that can be traded in the market.

two。 In the absence of the above trading information, the SMM magnesium price represents the price level that is most likely to close on the day.

3. Suspension of quotation during holidays

Price acquisition method: SMM magnesium price is based on the extensive collection of market information, with the prices of mainstream enterprises as the main reference. These sources of information include producers, consumers, traders and relevant third parties.

Price production process:

1. The rigorous pricing process is reflected in every process from collection, analysis, pricing and release to archiving, review and evaluation.

two。 Regularly understand the market feedback, improve the pricing process and pricing methods.

Price release mode

1. The price of the day is announced to the market free of charge through Shanghai Nonferrous net magnesium Zone (https://hq.smm.cn/magnesium) and Palm Nonferrous APP,.

two。 Through handheld non-ferrous APP, Wechat, website members, paid push to the market or access to history.

For magnesium related information, please contact SMM magnesium analyst.