SMM3: the outer metal market fell across the board yesterday, while copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell on Tuesday after China set a moderate economic growth target and there are signs that China may scale back its credit expansion, but analysts are still bullish on the long-term fundamentals of copper prices. China, the world's largest consumer of metals, is widely expected to rein in stimulus measures related to the novel coronavirus epidemic and cool credit growth to curb debt risks. There were ups and downs in the LME metal market this morning. As of 09:35, Lun Copper was up nearly 0.9%, Lun Aluminum fell slightly, Lun Zinc was down nearly 0.1%, Lun Nickel fell slightly, Lunxi rose nearly 1.1%, Lun lead fell nearly 0.6%. Domestically, international copper and Shanghai copper fell nearly 1.2%, Shanghai aluminum fell nearly 0.8%, Shanghai zinc fell nearly 0.4%, Shanghai lead fell nearly 1.4%, and Shanghai nickel fell nearly 1.2%. In the domestic market, international copper and Shanghai copper fell nearly 1.2%, Shanghai aluminum fell nearly 0.8%, Shanghai zinc fell nearly 0.4%, Shanghai lead fell nearly 1.4%, and Shanghai nickel fell nearly 1.2%. Shanghai tin rose nearly 1.8%.
On the copper side, on the macro side, US API crude oil stocks announced last night rose sharply to 12.792 million barrels in the week ending March 5, far higher than the forecast of-833000 barrels. Crude oil futures fell further, bearish commodities and copper futures fell. In addition, the Peruvian Minister of Energy and Mines said that Peruvian copper production would reach a record 2.5 million tons in 2021, up from 2.15 million tons last year. On the spot side, due to the delivery cycle, the spot price for the month is higher, and with the signs of turning point gradually after the Spring Festival, it may be difficult to find discounted supply.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Copper fell sharply in night trading, focusing on today's spot performance.
Aluminum, the short-term Shanghai aluminum continued high wide range concussion. Fundamentals, the current stock accumulation rate of aluminum ingots for domestic consumption slows down, in the short term, the decline is in line with previous expectations, the current market generally believes that the inventory peak is around 1.3 million tons, downstream demand recovery, inventory inflection point may appear in the middle and second half of this month, the medium-term continue to pay attention to long short sentiment changes, it is recommended to increase upstream shipments, downstream procurement based on demand, careful to chase high. Fundamentals are concerned about the impact of new messages from the "two sessions" on short-term mood swings in the market.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Shanghai Aluminum Co., Ltd. has picked up trading in the spot market around the front line of 17000.
Lead, overnight, the metal inside and outside fell, lun lead in this atmosphere to continue the downward trend, under the Bollinger Road under the rail. Keep an eye on the Fed's two-day policy meeting next week, and whether U.S. bond yields will continue to exercise collective pressure on the outer disk after a brief stabilisation. Overnight, Shanghai lead closed down again, and the week K line has dropped all the gains in the first seven weeks. The poor performance of the A-share market in the past two days has also put certain pressure on future lead. Shanghai lead may come out of the weak market in the future ahead of time, and pay attention to whether Shanghai lead can stop falling and stabilize during the day. Stand back to the first line of 14800 yuan / ton.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] lead continues to decline overnight in and out of trading, focusing on the cost support of recycled lead.
Zinc, overnight Lun zinc recorded a long shadow line, the upper 10-day moving average to form a pressure, the lower 5 / 60 daily moving average to provide support. Overnight LME inventory decreased 200 tons to 268275 tons, or 0.07%, slightly reduced LME inventory. Overnight outer disk metal fell, non-ferrous short funds to vent pressure, but the rise in US bond yields stabilized, and the market expects the US $1.9 trillion stimulus bill to be signed as soon as this week, Yilun Zinc is still on the rise. The zinc in Shanghai recorded a small positive pillar overnight, supported at the bottom of the 5 / 20 line, and was suppressed by the 10-day moving average above. The outer disk dragged down the Shanghai zinc correction slightly, but the support strength of the short-term supply of zinc fundamentals is still obvious. It is expected that the operation will still be strong after a short period of finishing. Pay attention to the progress of terminal resumption in the short term.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the non-ferrous whole will continue to adjust and zinc will still run strongly after a short period of finishing.
In terms of nickel, the recent sharp drop in nickel prices reflects the strong adjustment that the nickel market has lost its previous fundamental support and has been repriced after the big manufacturers want to develop the route from Indonesian nickel to high matte. In the future, the trend of nickel price will return to the fundamentals of the original nickel balance sheet. At the same time, after the conversion of ferronickel to new energy raw materials, the expanding premium between ferronickel and nickel sulfate will be repaired. The comparative relationship between the cost or selling price of the two is also the main support for determining the lower boundary line of the nickel price. So far, the bulls have not accumulated enough strength to bring a significant rebound, but this round of decline is expected to be overdrawn in advance after the high matte is put into production, and the market is still watching the opportunity for a rebound and the momentum consumption of the bears in this round of decline.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] it is expected that the supply of imported nickel will increase this week and the spot price of stainless steel will be weakly stabilized.
In terms of black, thread and hot coil fell nearly 2%, coking coal rose nearly 1.7%, coke fell slightly, iron ore fell nearly 4.6%, stainless steel fell nearly 1.3%, hot coil, according to SMM statistics, the market is expected to arrive 199000 tons this week, a month-on-month decrease of 3.1 tons, a drop of 13%. The month-on-month decline in the arrival volume of the Shanghai market is mainly due to the continuous upgrading of production restrictions on environmental protection in Tangshan and a marked slowdown in the southward pace of northern resources. It is expected that the arrival volume of the southern market will continue to be on the low side in the short term. The volume of goods arriving in Tianjin market is relatively stable. In the short term, there will be no large variables on the supply side of the market, and the overall level will remain stable. The demand side improves with the recovery of downstream enterprises and the digestion of low-cost resources. But we still need to be wary of price vomiting under fear of heights. At the same time, it is expected that Le from the market to enter the warehouse reduction cycle in the near future, and then in the fundamentals of the price has a certain support.
"[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Black ups and downs iron ore falls to the limit! Environmental protection limit production may have a great impact on pig iron output, transportation and so on.
The previous period of crude oil fell nearly 2.1%, US crude oil futures closed down for the second trading day in a row on Monday, Brent crude oil futures fell below $68 a barrel, with sharp intraday fluctuations as fears of supply disruptions in Saudi Arabia abated, offsetting the prospect of a pause in the rise of the dollar and production restrictions on (OPEC) production by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries and oil-producing allies. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) (EIA) will release its weekly crude oil inventory report at 23:30 on Wednesday at jian in Beijing, and analysts expect the data to show that US crude oil inventories have risen for the third consecutive week.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose nearly 1.6 per cent, while Shanghai silver rose nearly 2.8 per cent. Comex gold futures rose more than 2 per cent on Tuesday, rebounding strongly from the lows hit the previous day as US bond yields fell and the dollar weakened. 'i don't know if this means the end of the upward trend in yields, but it's a start, 'analysts said. Gold and silver traders have been waiting for the news and are returning to the market because it has been oversold and low.
As of 09:40, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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