SMM2, March 22: most of the outer plate metal was red on Friday, and (LME) copper on the London Metal Exchange jumped to its highest level in more than nine years on Friday, rising for the third week in a row due to tight supply and bullish sentiment on base metals after the Chinese New year. The LME metal market rose across the board this morning. As of 09:35, Lun Copper rose nearly 2.6%, Lun Zinc and Lun Aluminum rose nearly 1.6%, Lunni and Lunxi rose nearly 1.5%, Lunxi lead rose nearly 0.4%, domestic copper and Shanghai copper rose nearly 6%, Shanghai aluminum rose nearly 1.8%, Shanghai lead rose nearly 2.8%, Shanghai zinc rose nearly 2.1%, Shanghai nickel rose nearly 3.4%, and Shanghai tin rose 8%. Recently, the US stimulus policy ushered in progress, the global novel coronavirus confirmed cases declined, the oil market encountered force majeure, oil prices soared sharply, US stocks continued to explore, the financial market bullish atmosphere was strong, commodities showed a general rise, superimposed domestic "local festivals" made the market expect metal demand to recover quickly after the festival, and non-ferrous metals reappeared a scene of collective sparkle.
In terms of copper, copper rose during the night session, both inside and outside, reaching new highs since September 2011. The main contract for copper in Shanghai hit as high as 66470 yuan / ton, up 3.59% at night, while Lun Copper reached as high as $8894 / ton, up more than 3.89%. With the recovery of Synchronize in the global economy in the post-epidemic era, there are generally optimistic expectations for consumption in the market.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Copper continued to soar overnight, setting a new high since September 2011.
In terms of aluminum, on the first trading day after the festival, under the mood that the arrival of goods did not obviously exceed expectations, the spot market in East China continued to rise, with middlemen receiving goods in the day, and downstream entry sentiment was still substantially activated. East China morning transactions concentrated on the monthly discount of 80-60 yuan / ton, Shanghai and tin transactions concentrated 16250-16270 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transactions concentrated 16280-16290 yuan / ton. Macroscopically, the accumulation of domestic aluminum ingots may not exceed market expectations, and the trend of aluminum in the post-holiday period can still be supported to a certain extent, but we should continue to pay attention to the impact of the mismatch between domestic supply and demand on the short-term mood fluctuations of the market after the Spring Festival. Domestic unilateral recommendations for bargain-seeking appropriate layout of long; domestic recommendations to continue to hold the positive set; internal and external recommendations to try anti-set.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] on the first day after the festival, the main aluminum ingots in Shanghai rose 3.87%. The stock of aluminum ingots was lower than expected during the Spring Festival.
In terms of lead, last Friday night, Shanghai lead continued to rebound in the case of small overstocking in both markets, making up for the January decline and showing a strong performance. During the two trading days after the festival, the domestic A-share non-ferrous sector performed well, and the market remained optimistic about the domestic economic recovery and industrial production, which boosted the upward trend of the Shanghai lead center of gravity and the daily K-line. Trading in the spot market will gradually resume and lead prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at high levels, but we still need to pay attention to the impact of high selling positions on lead prices.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] during the macro-boost period, the lead trend is firm and the recycled lead discount is slightly expanded.
Zinc, overnight Shanghai zinc recorded a short-term small positive column, MACD positive column continues to expand, Bollinger online track below to provide support, has entered the field of overbought. The market generally has a strong expectation for the rapid recovery of post-holiday orders, the superimposed macro atmosphere is optimistic, and zinc prices are substantially stronger. Downstream consumer enterprises based on infrastructure products generally have high expectations and optimism about the post-holiday order market, combined with the fact that the accumulation of zinc ingots after February is slightly lower than expected, and after the return of consumption, there are great expectations for substantial destocking in the zinc ingot market.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Zinc spot trading is light and downstream has a strong willingness to receive goods at low prices.
Nickel, the rising trend of nickel futures, the spot market buyers have not yet returned, only traders inquire each other, the transaction atmosphere is light. During the holiday period, there is a tired stock in China, combined with the shipping intention of domestic large factories, it is expected that the spot water of Jinchuan nickel will decline, while imported nickel may be discussed near Pingshui. Iron nickel prices rose significantly, due to steel mills trial purchase prices on the low side, market activity has not yet fully recovered from the holiday, although the mainstream transaction prices have not yet reached this position, but the improvement of quotation sentiment makes the possibility of low-price procurement lower, the market can be traded price range up, coupled with scrap and feni economy higher nickel pig iron weakening, nickel iron prices still have support.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Nickel prices are rising as spot water continues to be under pressure, boosted by related varieties, high nickel pig iron sellers intend to raise prices.
Tin, the two trading days after the Spring Festival, driven by the outer disk and market bullish sentiment, Shanghai tin performance is also strong, as of Friday's close has approached 190000 yuan / ton first line. In terms of tin mining, we can pay attention to the resumption of production of Yinman Mining and its production expansion plan. Yinman Mining stopped production self-inspection in early February due to sudden death of employees, and the time to return to work has not yet been determined; it plans to increase its monthly output to 1000 tons in 2021, so we can pay attention to the implementation of its production expansion. In terms of tin ingots, domestic smelting output and shipping enthusiasm still depend on the supply of tin ores. In the past two trading days, although futures prices have risen positively, the spot discount has not significantly expanded, and the overall discount level has remained relatively strong, but this may be related to the fact that market supply and demand have not yet fully recovered.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] supply shortages can not ease in the short term, the rise in tin prices is expected to continue.
In terms of black, thread rose by nearly 2.1%, hot coil by nearly 3.4%, coking coal by nearly 3%, coke by nearly 2%, iron ore by nearly 3.5%, stainless steel by nearly 2.9%, and iron ore inventories at 35 ports tracked by SMM totaled 119.85 million tons as of Feb. 19, an increase of 1.96 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 8.16 million tons compared with the same period last week. Shandong, Tangshan and Jiangnei port inventories have all increased compared with the pre-festival period. During the current period, the average daily dredging of ports decreased by 352000 tons to 2.624 million tons compared with the previous period, mainly due to the decline of iron ore dredging in major ports during the Spring Festival. The control of heavy pollution in Tangshan area has been tightened during the Spring Festival, and the average daily dredging volume of Jingtang Port has dropped by 96000 tons to about 300000 tons compared with the previous month. Considering that some steel companies still have plans to increase in-plant inventory after the festival, the daily average of open ports is expected to increase gradually.
"Daily Review of Iron Ore Market on February 19
The previous period of crude oil fell nearly 0.4%, crude oil futures prices closed down on Friday, the market is expected to be hit by the winter storm in Texas crude oil production is about to return to normal. U. S. WTI crude fell below the $60 mark, a decline on the weekly line. Analysts pointed out that the situation in Texas remained crucial to short-term fundamental expectations, and the market focus began to shift to a full recovery of operations. Us crude oil production fell by a record 40 per cent as a result of massive power outages and cold weather conditions, but production is expected to recover soon as the weather gets warmer.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose nearly 0.7%, while Shanghai silver rose nearly 3.5%. Comex gold futures closed higher on Friday as the dollar weakened, but the weekly line fell more than 2% as bond yields rose strongly this week, weakening gold demand. Analysts say gold should still benefit from continued loose monetary policy and low real interest rates this year. The trend of gold is similar to that of the tsunami, with the first stage of flooding receding (gold prices falling) and then making a comeback with a stronger momentum (gold prices rose sharply).
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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