SMM News: higher US Treasury yields, coupled with a weaker dollar, gold prices are still collating sideways, failing to be boosted by the US epidemic and the Fed's neutralization risk signals. Bitcoin, boosted by risk news, has replaced gold as the new haven for investors. The price of gold is now down slightly, hovering around resistance near $1891 below its 10-day moving average.
Fundamental Analysis: new restrictions in the United States offset Vaccine hopes that US stocks will erase gains and losses in early trading
With the third wave of novel coronavirus epidemic in the United States ahead of the holiday, New York City announced on Wednesday that it would officially close schools and transition to online video learning from now on, based on the rising diagnosis rate. The new restrictions added to investor concerns that a surge in the number of cases would freeze the US economic rebound, while the US stock market erased early gains and fell on Wednesday.
According to Worldometer real-time statistics, as of 06:30 Hong Kong time on November 19, a total of 11835484 cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed in the United States, with a total of 255808 deaths. Compared with the same time the day before yesterday, there were 163571 new confirmed cases and 1807 new deaths in the United States.
The resurgence of novel coronavirus's outbreak in the US also offset bullish sentiment in the development of new crown vaccines, with Pfizer and BioNTech announcing on Wednesday that their vaccines were effective against more than 94.5 per cent of novel coronavirus among participants in later trials. Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla later said that Pfizer has accumulated enough safety data and is ready to apply for emergency use authorization from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) (FDA). He also indicated in an interview with the New York Times that Pfizer will apply soon and will announce the news immediately.
Albert Bourla said he thought questions about the overall safety of the Pfizer vaccine had been answered. "We have achieved our security milestone and are now preparing to submit it to FDA," he said. CNN quoted sources familiar with the Pfizer vaccine development process as saying that FDA had scheduled meetings held by (Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee), the Advisory Committee on Vaccines and related Biological products, on December 8, 9 and 10. He also indicated that the agency could decide whether to issue a vaccine emergency use authorization after the meeting.
According to a statement by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ((CDC)) in October, if FDA is authorized by Pfizer for emergency use of vaccine, it can be immediately distributed to states in the United States. But until the CDC Advisory Committee reviews vaccine safety data, selects vaccine types, and describes priority groups, no American is allowed to be vaccinated. A spokesman for the CDC said the advisory committee would be made up of medical experts and would meet within 24 to 48 hours for discussion.
Dr. William Schaffner, a member of the CDC Advisory Committee, said: "the (ACIP) of the US Advisory Committee on Vaccines informed all members that we should adjust the schedule more flexibly because this meeting may not receive a lot of advance notice and will be completed very quickly."
Although Pfizer's announcement brings the United States closer to the distribution of novel coronavirus vaccine, the market reaction has clearly erased the previous enthusiasm compared with novel coronavirus's vaccine updates in the past. Oanda Europe analyst Craig Erlam said: "this is almost a crazy week, the United States before the election with novel coronavirus vaccine recovery hopes showed little sign of abating." Maybe we have seen the beginning of weakness, which could be the end of this year's active period. "
Technical analysis:
Gold fell further below support of $1900, the dollar fell against most major currencies and Treasury yields rose. Gary Wagner, editor of Gold Forecast, said gold's 50-day and 100-day moving averages had just passed the "death crossover" after months of volatility, a pattern that meant gold prices could show a "sharp decline". "when the short-term moving average falls below the long-term moving average, it forms an X-ray like a skull," he said. From December last year to January this year, we had a reversal, which means that our long-term moving average is higher than our short-term moving average. "
He added: "the next support level is $1845, and the main reason we have seen gold weakness recently is that traders have been expecting Congress, the Senate and the US government to pass an additional novel coronavirus economic stimulus package. Of course, this has not happened, so gold pressure will continue to be driven."
Due to the cross sell signal generated by the fast random index, the short-term momentum has changed to negative, and the medium-term momentum has changed from neutral to negative.
