[SMM analysis] scrap copper consumption strengthens and the operating rate of refined copper rods fell to 78.66% month-on-month in June.

SMM, July 13:

The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises in June was 78.66%.

According to SMM research data, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 78.66% in June, down 1.70% from the previous month and an increase of 3.01% over the same period last year. Among them, the operating rate of large enterprises is 80.10%, that of medium-sized enterprises is 47.27%, and that of small enterprises is 12.00%. The operating rate of refined copper rods continued to decrease in June compared with the previous month, and the order concentration effect reflected in April continued to weaken in May and June, and the stock orders of enterprises decreased. Especially in July, the early backlog of orders is basically completed, the growth of new orders under the off-season effect is not as good as the previous period, high copper prices also inhibit terminal procurement demand, the feeling of weakening orders is more obvious. In addition, a number of enterprises mentioned that at present, orders for refined copper rods are obviously affected by scrap copper rods, especially in some refined copper rod factories in North China, and there is even a backlog of finished product inventory. Affected by the weakening of orders, copper rod processing fees have also fallen. However, compared with the same period last year, the operating rate still increased slightly in June, mainly because power cable orders continued to be good, and the operating rate of cable enterprises was still above 100 in June, while the operating rate of scrap copper rod enterprises was still limited by the raw material supply side. (research enterprises: 36, production capacity: 8.47 million tons)

The raw material inventory ratio of refined copper rod enterprises in June was 7.47%.

In June, the raw material inventory ratio of refined copper rod enterprises was 7.47%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points compared with the previous month. From May to June, copper maintained the pace of high copper prices and rising water, the downstream was afraid of high and cautious procurement, and raw material inventories maintained a low level of less than 10%. The continuous tight spot performance in China also affects the raw material reserve capacity of processing enterprises.

It is estimated that the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises will be 76.79% in July.

According to SMM research, it is estimated that the operating rate of 7 fine copper rod enterprises is 76.79%, a decrease of 1.87% from the previous month, and an increase of 1.70% over the same period last year. In July, consumption off-season effect superimposed fine waste price gap further expanded, scrap copper outflow increased, and the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises is expected to continue to decline month-on-month in July.

(SMM Wei Xue)