Review and Forecast of Holiday in Zinc City: holiday Macro data are mixed Zinc fell 2.26%

Macroscopically: during the National Day holiday, the United States released a series of economic data, including mixed results. In September, the US ISM manufacturing PMI hit a new low of 47.8 in nearly a decade, the non-manufacturing PMI hit a new low of 52.6 in the past three years, and the non-farm employment data in September was slightly lower than expected at 136000. The unemployment rate hit a new low of 3.5% in 50 years. According to CME "Fed Watch" analysis, the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.50-1.75 per cent in October is 78 per cent. Protests in Hong Kong have escalated, with protesters burning and destroying stations and banks and resisting the government's ban on masking to quell the situation.

Outer plate: Lun Zinc broke through the upper 60-day moving average under the support of a long head, rising by $2383 / ton, and then empty into Daoping for two consecutive days, dragging down zinc, moving the center of gravity to around $2270 / ton. Boosted by macro news, Lun Zinc returned to the first line of $2325 / ton, failed to stand firm, fell down by $2262 / ton, and the bulls once again boosted Lun Zinc's steady rise to $2310 / ton. As of October 4, Lun Zinc closed at $2311.5 a tonne, down $53.50, or 2.26 per cent.

Shanghai zinc, the last trading day before the festival, long positions down the Shanghai zinc center of gravity downward, but the three inventory recorded a decline, suppressing part of the short confidence. The main reason is that the demand for downstream reserve warehouse is strong during the National Day holiday, and the range of going to the warehouse is more significant.

SMM judged that considering the environmental protection news brought about by the National Day parade, the impact of production restriction on galvanizing plants in North China is relatively limited, while downstream plates such as die-casting zinc alloy, brass and zinc oxide in South and East China show signs of improving orders, and overall consumption has a warming trend. On the other hand, the smelting end is still producing at full capacity, and the follow-up maintenance situation has not increased for the time being. In addition to the fact that some smelters have not yet returned to the normal production impact, there may still be a small increase in overall, and the fundamentals look at whether the action on Shanghai zinc is strong enough. Recently, the progress of the resumption of Sino-US trade negotiations may have a stronger impact on the trend of zinc in Shanghai than the fundamentals, follow-up attention to macro guidelines.

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