Macroscopically, the US non-agricultural data was lower than expected, and the dollar index showed an overall downward trend after rising.
On the outside, as the dollar index fell, Lunxi gained a center of gravity, peaking at a week's high of $16650 / tonne, while Lunxi was blocked by a 40-day EMA pullback after an early rally, closing at $16475 a tonne last Friday. Overall, there was no significant change in inventories, with LME tin stocks at 6800 tonnes as of Friday, Oct. 4, down 55 tonnes from 6855 tonnes on Sept. 30.
On the domestic side, Shanghai tin September 30 due to the pressure of short forces plus the pressure of Lunxi downward, the center of gravity fell again, the lowest down to 133260 yuan / ton after the short closing profit, the center of gravity has returned to 134800 yuan / ton closing. Spot aspect, September 30 Shanghai tin spot mainstream transaction price is 134000-135000 yuan / ton, the last trading day before National Day, Shanghai tin spot market transaction is weak, Shanghai tin 2001 contract set Yunxi 1000 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word up 600 yuan / ton, small brand flat water.
SMM expects to focus on whether Lunxi can effectively stand above its 40-day moving average of $16700 a tonne. Shanghai tin is expected to be affected by the rise of Lunxi after the short-term center of gravity may move up, it is expected that the support below the Shanghai tin is near the integer level of 134000 yuan / ton, and the upper resistance is near the 10-day moving average of 136500 yuan / ton. Spot, affected by the National Day, it is expected that after the short-term upstream start and downstream demand recovery still need a small amount of time, it is expected that the short-term spot market transactions or will be generally weak.
