SHFE Copper to Strengthen (2017-5-8)

[Cochilco Again Lowers 2026 Chilean Copper Production Forecast; H2 Recovery Still Has Room to Materialize] Cochilco has recently lowered its 2026 Chilean copper production forecast to 5.27 million mt, down 2.6% YoY, mainly due to lower grades at large mines, maintenance, slower project ramp-ups and operational constraints in H1. Over the same period, China imported 4.2808 million mt of copper concentrates from Chile, down 7.9% YoY, with Chile’s share of China’s copper concentrate imports falling to 29.3%; the contribution of Chilean supply to the Chinese market weakened temporarily. However, most miners maintained their full-year production guidance, mainly banking on H2 recovery from the switch to higher-grade ore zones, the completion of maintenance, and project ramp-ups. Going forward, whether Chilean production rebounds on schedule will continue to affect the global copper concentrate supply-demand balance and the TC trend.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $14,230/mt, drifted higher early in the session to touch a high of $14,262/mt, then the copper price center shifted straight down, dipping to $14,096.5/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at $14,109.5/mt, down 0.31%. Trading volume reached 16,900 lots, while open interest reached 263,000 lots, up 1,892 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting an increase in short positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 108,610 yuan/mt, immediately touched a high of 109,730 yuan/mt early in the session, then the copper price center drifted lower, dipping to 107,730 yuan/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at 107,780 yuan/mt, down 0.36%. Trading volume reached 34,000 lots, while open interest reached 212,000 lots, down 2,364 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting a decrease in long positions.

Generation Mining ha avanzado en las adquisiciones y la preparación para la construcción de su proyecto de cobre-paladio Marathon en Ontario, con ofertas que cubren aproximadamente el 30 % de los costos de capital estimados del proyecto y que se sitúan en o por debajo de las previsiones del estudio de factibilidad. Se espera que la operación planificada de 13 años produzca aproximadamente 532 millones de libras de cobre pagadero, sujeta a una decisión final de construcción.