Aluminum and Oil Prices: Keep an Eye on These Two

One year after the US raised Section 232 aluminum import tariffs from 25% to 50%, Canada remains the country's largest primary aluminum supplier. Canada exported about 2.9 million tones of aluminum in 2025, with approximately 2.3 million tones shipped to the US. While the higher tariffs lifted the US Midwest aluminum premium and encouraged Canadian producers to diversify exports toward Europe, they have not significantly reduced US dependence on Canadian aluminum. Industry estimates indicate that even restarting all idled US smelters would still leave a supply gap of around 3.6 million tones. Market participants expect North America's aluminum supply chain to become more diversified rather than fundamentally separated.

A proposed aluminum smelter in Inola, Oklahoma, continues to divide local residents over environmental concerns and economic benefits. US President Donald Trump publicly endorsed the project, saying it would create jobs and strengthen domestic aluminum production, while criticizing legal efforts to block its development. Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt also warned that delaying the project could drive investment and manufacturing opportunities to other states. The US Department of Energy noted that Inola's inland port provides efficient logistics for bauxite transportation, making it a strategic location for expanding domestic aluminum smelting capacity and reinforcing the US supply chain.

The Irish government is considering seeking EU financial support to keep Aughinish Alumina operating if further sanctions on Russia threaten the refinery's future due to its Russian ownership. Authorities are also assessing the possibility of temporary state control of the County Limerick refinery, one of Europe's largest alumina producers with 459 employees. Any disruption could affect aluminum supply chains serving the automotive and aerospace industries. Officials are also evaluating potential risks to bauxite supply if the current Russian owners halt shipments from Guinea. The move reflects growing efforts to balance Europe's industrial supply security with broader geopolitical sanctions against Russia.