[SMM Tin Midday Review] Hawkish remarks reignite tightening concerns, tin prices fall again, weak tech stocks drag down AI premium

Tin Market Midday Commentary – November 6, 2026

I. Price Review

SMM #1 tin was quoted at 350,700 yuan/mt today, down 57,500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

The most-traded SHFE tin 2612 contract opened the night session at 357,280 yuan/mt, trended lower during the night session with the decline extending into early morning trading, hitting an intraday low of 337,400 yuan/mt before consolidating around the center. It closed the morning at 342,760 yuan/mt, down 10,760 yuan/mt or 3.04% from yesterday's settlement price of 353,520 yuan/mt. Trading volume today was 304,131 lots, with open interest at 43,639 lots, up 3,641 lots on the day.

On the LME side, overnight LME tin 3M closed at $46,100/mt, down 2.31%. It remained weak during Asian trading hours today, last quoted at $45,665/mt, down $215/mt or 0.47% from yesterday's settlement, trading in a range of $45,440–46,440/mt on volume of 266 lots, with prices extending to fresh lows not seen in nearly seven months. The SHFE/LME price ratio stood at approximately 7.51.

II. Spot Market

In the spot market, activity was brisk in the night session but turned quiet in the morning. During the decline in futures prices, inquiries and transactions were relatively active; after prices consolidated at lows in the morning and the center rebounded slightly, a wait-and-see sentiment re-emerged, with downstream buyers mainly placing small orders for immediate needs. On the supply side, smelters' willingness to sell remained generally subdued, and the tightness in available spot cargoes persisted.

Ex-China, the domestic import window remained closed and import-export arbitrage opportunities failed to open up, with overseas tin ingot offers edging lower. LME tin inventory stood flat at 3,940 mt on November 5, with cancelled warrants at 385 mt. Inventory remained at relatively low levels for the year, and the logic of low inventory providing a floor for LME tin prices remained intact, though the support has weakened somewhat amid softening demand expectations.

III. Macro Front

① Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC voting member) delivered hawkish remarks. Around 23:00 Beijing time last night (corresponding to the night session sell-off window), Hammack stated that inflation remains too high and is moving in the wrong direction, requiring restrictive policy to be maintained and gradual rate hikes to continue. The midterm election results have actually reduced the Fed's political concerns and expanded its independence. The market began to reprice the probability of "higher for longer, and possibly one more hike," with the US dollar and Treasury yields rebounding in tandem and base metals coming under broad pressure.

② Pricing of the US midterm elections has wound down. Previously, the market had wagered that a Democratic sweep would constrain the Fed; after the election dust settled, the trading logic reversed: with political constraints diminished, the Fed can focus more on suppressing inflation, and rate cut expectations have been pushed further back. Meanwhile, tech stocks and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index weakened. Tin's "AI/advanced packaging premium" is the core source of its elasticity that distinguishes it from other base metals, and amid the tech stock pullback, tin's decline was pronounced.

IV. Comprehensive Outlook

Overall, the macro front remains the dominant driver of tin prices at present. Hammack's hawkish remarks, combined with the Fed's enhanced autonomy to suppress inflation following the election, have led the market to reprice a "higher for longer" rate path. The US dollar and Treasury yields rebounded, and tightening trades heated up again. Coupled with the drag from weakening tech stocks on the AI demand narrative, tin's decline ranked among the steepest in the base metals complex. On the fundamentals side, there are no new drivers for now, with low inventory and the closed import window providing some support on the downside and limiting the room for deep price declines. SHFE tin is expected to fluctuate in the range of 334,000–347,000 yuan/mt in the near term, while LME tin is expected to trade in the range of $44,800–46,500/mt.