The most-traded SHFE tin contract closed at 343,040 in the night session, down 2.96%, while LME tin officially closed at 45,479, down 3.23%. Concerns over AI capital expenditure weighed on prices, with the market dipping to the 337,000 level before recovering 340,000 [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM Tin Morning Brief | Most-traded SHFE tin contract closed at 343,040 in night session, down 2.96%; LME official tin price closed at 45,479, down 3.23%; AI capex concerns hit sentiment, price dipped to the 337,000 level before reclaiming 340,000 — November 6, 2026 (Friday)

1. Futures

The most-traded SHFE tin contract SN2612 (night session volume 225,445 lots, open interest 45,105 lots, ranking first in both volume and open interest) opened at 357,280 yuan/mt at 21:00 on November 5, shot up to 358,360 at 21:03 before turning into a one-sided decline, dipped to 337,400 from 23:56 to 00:08, rebounded from the low after 00:11, and closed at 343,040 at 01:00, down 10,480 yuan, or −2.96%, from the previous settlement of 353,520; down 14,360 yuan, or −4.02%, from the November 5 daytime session close of 357,400; night session range was 20,960 yuan. The second most-traded contract SN2701 closed at 354,160 (volume 64,918 lots, open interest 24,612 lots, +2,657); total tin night session volume was 311,156 lots, with open interest at 85,974 lots (+8,261). Rising open interest amid falling prices pointed to bear dominance, but buying support emerged near the 337,000 level.

On the LME, the official closing price for 3M tin was $45,479/mt (official settlement basis on November 5), down $1,516, or −3.23%, from the previous trading day's official close of $46,995. The LME cash settlement price stood at a premium of $117.29/mt to 3M (official settlement basis on November 4), with the spot market remaining in backwardation.

2. Inventory: Three Dimensions

LME tin inventory stood at 3,940 mt (November 5, unchanged from the prior day); SHFE tin warrants totaled 1,574 mt (November 5, down 173 mt); SMM China tin ingot social inventory was 6,342 mt (for the week ended October 30, destocking by 347 mt in a single week, compared with 6,689 mt on October 23 in the prior week). All three gauges remained near multi-year lows, leaving the visible inventory buffer against prices still thin.

3. Macro

The US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.836% on November 5 (3 p.m. ET close, Tradeweb basis), down 5.5 basis points from the prior trading day, the lowest since September 9. US equities closed on November 5 as follows: the Dow at 51,523.06 points (−1,833.06, −3.44%), the S&P 500 at 7,353.73 points (−334.89, −4.36%, the largest single-day drop since April 2025), and the Nasdaq at 24,315.00 points (−1,421.51, −5.52%, entering correction territory). The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 12% in a single day, its largest decline since 2020. CME fed funds futures showed an 81.5% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December (November 5), up from 78.9% on November 4. Oil prices: NYMEX December WTI settled at $90.52/bbl (+2.40, +2.72%), and ICE January Brent settled at $98.29/bbl (+3.67, +3.88%). US Fed officials Hammack and Barkin both voiced support for gradual rate hikes on November 5.

IV. Spot market description

SMM #1 tin averaged 356,400 yuan/mt on November 5 (up 4,100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day). Premiums against the December contract: minor brands at 4,500-5,000 yuan/mt, mainstream brands in Yunnan at 5,000-6,000 yuan/mt, and Yunnan Tin at 6,000-7,000 yuan/mt. Spot trading was sluggish on November 5, with downstream users mainly digesting inventories and struggling to catch up after the price rise. Available cargoes were tight, and suppliers remained willing to hold prices firm. After the sharp drop in the night session, the extent of price fixing and restocking on November 6 remains to be confirmed at the market open.

V. Fundamentals: Supply

Mine side: Production resumptions in Wa State, Myanmar, remained at 40-50%, with a full recovery pushed back to 2027. Indonesia exported 3,970 mt of tin ingot in September (down 17.36% MoM). China imported 21,602.70 mt in physical content of tin ore in September (up 95.57% YoY), with cumulative metal content at 54,200 mt in January-September (up 29.04% YoY). Smelting side: The operating rate at smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 26.92% (down 0.19 percentage point MoM), at a historical low. Maintenance at Yunnan Tin ended on October 26. Refined tin production was 8,615 mt in October (16,070 mt in September, down 7,455 mt or 46.5% MoM), and is expected to rebound to 15,615 mt in November (+7,000 mt).

Supply summary: Production resumptions in Wa State remained at 40-50%, Indonesian exports continued to contract YoY, the smelter operating rate of 26.92% was at a historical low, and October production plunged to 8,615 mt. The tight supply picture remains unchanged, providing bottom support for prices but not enough to drive an upward push.

VI. Fundamentals: Demand

Solder side: The operating rate at solder enterprises was 79.10% in September (up 6.3 percentage points MoM), with only a slight MoM increase in October and a pullback expected in November. The September-October peak season largely wound down by end-October. Downstream users have limited capacity to absorb high tin prices, with spot trading sluggish on November 5 and dominated by digestion of existing inventories. On the AI and semiconductor side, overseas tech giants are releasing Q3 earnings in quick succession. Nvidia's FY2027 Q3 earnings are scheduled for the early hours of November 18 Beijing time (after the US market close on November 17 ET), a key verification point for Q4 computing-power solder demand.

Demand summary: The peak season is drawing to a close, with October operating rates only slightly higher and November expected to pull back. Demand is tilting weaker, with end-users digesting inventories instead of chasing higher prices to restock, providing no incremental support for tin prices. In the near term, the market is underpinned only by the forward narrative of AI computing-power orders.

VII. Comprehensive

Market characterization on November 5: After the midterm elections, concerns over AI and data center capital expenditure were released in a concentrated manner. The Nasdaq fell 5.52%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 12%. The broad decline in risk assets transmitted to base metals, with SHFE tin down 2.96% in the night session and LME tin down 3.23%, both marking the largest single-day declines in recent times. Industry observation: This round of decline was driven by macro risk appetite rather than deterioration in tin's own supply-demand fundamentals — inventories across the three reporting channels remained low, LME spot cargo stayed in backwardation, and in the night session, the 337,000 level saw volume-based absorption with open interest increasing by 5,107 lots. Fundamentals have not given a signal of a trend shift to the bearish side; however, before macro sentiment stabilizes, price fluctuations will remain elevated.