In the spot market, the SMM average spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was reported at 99,350 yuan/mt on Thursday, down 2,800 yuan/mt WoW, a weekly decline of 2.7%, with the average spot price falling below the 100,000 yuan/mt mark. In futures, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract closed at 94,180 yuan/mt on Thursday, down 5% WoW. Futures fluctuated sharply during the week, rebounding on Monday and Tuesday, briefly recovering to 102,120 yuan/mt on Tuesday and moving back above 100,000 yuan/mt, before falling sharply on Wednesday, with an overall downward trend for the week.
On the supply side, according to SMM data, China's weekly lithium carbonate production increased by 845 mt WoW, continuing to maintain growth. By raw material: spodumene-based production increased as lithium ore arrivals came into port, making it the main source of growth this week; other raw material sources maintained stable production with no significant changes; recycling-based production continued to decline due to maintenance at enterprises, strong sentiment among grinding enterprises to hold back from selling and hold prices firm on cost considerations, widespread difficulties for downstream hydrometallurgical enterprises in purchasing LFP black mass, seasonal factors causing production cuts at some brine-based lithium extraction lines, and mediocre nickel-cobalt demand for ternary black mass, which lowered purchase willingness among hydrometallurgical enterprises.
On the demand side, total lithium carbonate sample inventory this week was 52,093 mt, down 3,324 mt WoW. Judging from actual market transactions and inventory conditions, as lithium carbonate prices declined recently, upstream lithium chemical plants mainly shipped under long-term contracts with low willingness to sell spot orders, leading to increased inventory at this stage; downstream material plants and battery cell manufacturers saw weakening lithium carbonate demand due to declining orders, mainly consuming long-term contracts and customer-supplied materials. As some material plants remained cautious and wait-and-see, spot purchases were mainly for rigid demand, and the pace of market inquiries and actual transactions slowed down. Therefore, inventory decreased slightly this week, maintaining an overall destocking trend.
This week, futures rebounded early in the week before falling sharply again, with the average spot price breaking below the 100,000 yuan/mt mark and the market center continuing to move lower. On the supply side, spodumene arrivals drove continued production growth, while downstream orders declined and demand weakened, leaving the supply-demand surplus pattern unchanged; upstream reluctance to sell spot orders provided limited support to prices, and market confidence remained weak. In the short term, with no clear demand recovery and downstream players remaining cautious and wait-and-see, lithium carbonate prices are expected to stay in the doldrums, with an estimated trading range of 90,000-110,000 yuan/mt next week.
![[SMM Analysis] Ternary Cathode Production Schedules May Continue to Decline Going Forward](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/fblvS20251217171729.png)
![[SMM Analysis] Ternary Cathode Production Schedule May Continue to Decline](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/mzgdV20251217171729.png)
