[NPI Daily Review] Tug-of-war between longs and shorts intensifies in the NPI market, and expectations of further price declines persist

[10.19 Morning Meeting Notes] US September PPI ran hot, with inflationary pressures broadening. September PPI rose 1.3% MoM, the largest gain in over four years (more than double the 0.6% expected), and climbed 6.3% YoY, the highest since December 2022. Gasoline surged 20% as the main driver, and core PPI excluding food, energy, and trade still rose 0.5%, indicating inflation is spreading to a wider range of sectors. Retail sales beat expectations. Traders still see a 91% probability of at least one rate hike before December. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2611) opened lower in early trading, dipped, then rebounded, closing the morning session at 115,790 yuan/mt, down 0.10%, with open interest down about 3,400 lots. US Treasuries and the US dollar retreated from highs, marginally easing macro pressure. SHFE nickel opened lower and rebounded in the morning session, but nickel's own high inventory and weak demand picture remains unchanged. The rebound was still driven by bear short-covering, lacking active bulls. Tonight's speech by Warsh is a key variable—if he remains dovish, sentiment may recover; if he turns hawkish, pressure will return. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a range of 114,000-120,000 yuan/mt.