[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary] Silicon Metal Strengthens, Glass Prices Rise, Modules and Distributed Generation Weaken

SMM, October 19:

Silicon Metal

Prices:Last week, spot silicon metal center edged up slightly, while futures prices fluctuated widely. Oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China stood at 9,450-9,550 yuan/mt, and futures prices closed at 8,720 yuan/mt last Friday afternoon, with the futures center firm. Silicon metal fundamentals remained solid. On one hand, electricity, petroleum coke, and silicon coal prices stayed high, coupled with increased trucking transportation costs. On the other hand, silicon metal supply was tight, and spot circulation of reasonably priced cargoes was limited. Silicon producers held firm quotes, and downstream buyers purchased on an as-needed basis.

Production:With the rainy and dry seasons approaching, most silicon producers in Sichuan and Yunnan plan to cut production in late October or at month-end, and silicon metal production in November is expected to decline MoM.

Inventories:

Social inventories:SMM data showed that social inventories of silicon metal in major regions fell by 10 kt WoW as of October 15 (excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, and other regions). In most regions, arrivals at social warehouses were low, and with buyers gradually picking up goods, silicon metal social warehouses continued destocking.

Polysilicon

Prices:Over the weekend, mainstream producers' desired price for N-type recharging polysilicon was 40-43 yuan/kg. The polysilicon market was relatively stable, with downstream inventories sufficient and digestion of inventories as the main focus. Upstream producers quoted based on cost lines, with limited changes. Market expectations for meetings remained, and transaction sentiment was subdued.

Production:China's polysilicon production in October will decline significantly, with production expected to fall below 100 kt. In addition to production cut expectations at some bases in south-west China due to the dry season, some bases in Xinjiang and other regions also have production cut expectations under coordinated cuts.

Inventories:Market transactions were extremely limited, with virtually no new orders signed, and polysilicon inventories subsequently rose somewhat. Some participants were trading warrants.

Modules

Prices:Last week, domestic distributed module prices fell, while centralized prices remained stable. For distributed modules, with the start of competitive selling and the clearance of modules below 630W, price pressure in the Chinese market was significant. Some enterprises began lowering quotes to boost shipments, but mainstream transaction prices of top-tier producers remained stable for now. For centralized modules, recent new project tenders were limited, with most activity focused on deliveries of earlier projects. For new orders, enterprises generally targeted around 0.7 yuan/W, with some quoting as low as around 0.67 yuan/W under shipment targets, resulting in a wide price spread. Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules were quoted at 0.705 yuan/W, 0.715 yuan/W, and 0.7213 yuan/W, respectively. Centralized Topcon 182/183, 210N, and 210R high-efficiency modules were quoted at 0.693 yuan/W, 0.704 yuan/W, and 0.699 yuan/W, respectively.

Production:Recently, some producers have lowered operating rates compared with production schedules planned at the beginning of the month, mainly due to weaker-than-expected ex-China demand and limited growth in China's centralized segment.

Inventories:Last week, domestic module inventories declined again. After the holiday, downstream projects began requiring deliveries, and enterprises accelerated shipments, bringing overall inventory levels back to pre-National Day holiday positions.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Prices:Currently, domestic inner-layer sand prices are 40,000-47,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand prices are 21,000-24,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand prices are 12,500-18,000 yuan/mt. Imported high-purity quartz sand prices are 50,000-53,000 yuan/mt. 33-inch quartz crucibles are priced at 5,400-5,700 yuan/piece, and 36-inch quartz crucibles at 6,400-6,600 yuan/piece. Recently, low-end prices for 36-inch crucibles have declined somewhat. Top-tier producers held quotes steady, but some second- and third-tier producers began competing for orders as wafer operating rates weakened, pushing market low-end prices down.

Production:In October, overall quartz sand operating rates are expected to continue declining. Recently, the volume of quartz sand sold externally in the Chinese market has increased, mainly consisting of previously imported sand. With relatively favorable prices, domestic sand supply has come under pressure, and operating rates have declined.

Inventories:Recently, domestic quartz sand inventories have continued to rise. Crucible demand fell short of expectations, and with longer service life, quartz sand purchasing has weakened.

PV Glass

Prices:

3.2mm single-layer coating: 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass was quoted at 16-17 yuan/m², with prices stable.

3.2mm double-layer coating: 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass was quoted at 17-18 yuan/m², with prices stable.

2.0mm single-layer coating: 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass was quoted at 10.2-10.6 yuan/m². Recently, domestic glass enterprises began raising quotes around month-end settlement prices and November pricing. Some producers have raised quotes to 11 yuan/m², but no transactions have been concluded yet. With expectations of rising natural gas prices, glass prices are still expected to move higher.

2.0mm double-layer coating: 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass was quoted at 11.2-11.6 yuan/m², with prices up.

Production:Last week, a 600 mt/day furnace underwent cold repair in China, and another 1,000 mt/day furnace will be shut down soon, with supply expected to decline further.

Inventories:Last week, days of inventories of domestic PV glass declined somewhat. Spot order transactions increased, and some module enterprises showed willingness to stockpile.