Oct 19 Alumina Morning Comment
Futures Market:
Overnight, the most-traded alumina 2701 contract opened at 2,633, hit an intraday high of 2,653 and a low of 2,628, and ultimately settled at 2,639, moving sideways in a narrow range overall. Trading volume fell sharply by about 63,000 lots to 79,000 lots, and open interest decreased by about 8,000 lots to 279,000 lots, indicating a notable cooling in market activity and reduced willingness to participate from both bulls and bears. From a technical perspective, the closing price stood above MA5 (2,609.6) and MA10 (2,630.6), but remained below MA20 (2,656.95) and MA40 (2,681.77). Short-term moving averages provided some support for prices, while medium-term moving averages still posed overhead resistance, keeping the market in a low-level sideways consolidation pattern overall.
Bauxite:
As of October 16, 2026, the SMM Imported Bauxite CIF Index stood at $72.23/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of high-grade bauxite (Shanxi) was 595 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; low-grade bauxite (Shanxi) averaged 550 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; high-grade bauxite (Henan) averaged 590 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; low-grade bauxite (Henan) averaged 520 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; high-grade bauxite (Guangxi) averaged 365 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; low-grade bauxite (Guangxi) averaged 327.50 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; high-grade bauxite (Guizhou) averaged 515 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; low-grade bauxite (Guizhou) averaged 420 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; Guiyang bauxite (60%/6.0) averaged 535 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF averaged $67.50/mt, flat from the previous trading day; SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF averaged $60.50/mt, flat from the previous trading day; SMM Guinean bauxite FOB averaged $40/dmt, flat from the previous trading day; SMM Guinean bauxite CIF averaged $71.25/mt, down $0.25/mt from the previous trading day; Malaysian bauxite CIF averaged $52/mt, flat from the previous trading day; Malaysian washed bauxite CIF averaged $62.50/mt, flat from the previous trading day; Ghanaian bauxite CIF averaged $78/mt, flat from the previous trading day; Indonesian bauxite FOB averaged $37/mt in physical content, flat from the previous trading day; Turkish bauxite CFR stood at $72.50/dmt, flat from the previous trading day; Pakistani bauxite FOB averaged $58.50/dmt, flat from the previous trading day.
Alumina Spot:
On October 16, the SMM Alumina Index stood at 2,661.08 yuan/mt, down 6.61 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Shandong Alumina Index stood at 2,659.05 yuan/mt, down 10.25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Henan Alumina Index stood at 2,682.50 yuan/mt, down 4.45 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Shanxi Alumina Index stood at 2,682.17 yuan/mt, down 7.30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guizhou Alumina Index stood at 2,690.00 yuan/mt, down 8.40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guangxi Alumina Index stood at 2,577.50 yuan/mt, down 3.75 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.
Basis Daily:
According to SMM data, on October 16, the SMM alumina index stood at a premium of 17.19 yuan/mt against the latest traded price of the most-traded contract at 11:30. Warrant Daily Report: On October 16, total registered alumina warrants stood at 225,560 mt, up 899 mt from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Shandong stood at 3,897 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Henan stood at 0 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Guangxi stood at 49,599 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Gansu stood at 24,569 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Xinjiang stood at 148,394 mt, up 899 mt from the previous trading day.
Markets Outside China: As of October 16, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price stood at $373/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the Australia-China ocean freight rate stood at $36.35/mt; the USD/CNY selling rate stood near 6.710. This price translates to a domestic mainstream port selling price of about 3,182.33 yuan/mt, 526.42 yuan/mt above the SMM alumina index.
Summary:
This week, China's total alumina inventory rose by about 48,000 mt WoW to above 7.48 million mt, with the overall inventory continuing to accumulate. By segment, raw material inventories at aluminum smelters increased, with downstream winter stockpiling willingness gradually emerging; finished product inventories at alumina refineries continued to build, with pressure on finished products unabated amid high production; port inventories edged down, continuing the destocking trend, with cargoes shifting further to in-plant and in-transit segments; in-transit and platform stockpiles increased, as post-holiday shipment pace recovered, driving accumulation of cargoes en route; warrant inventories edged down, basically stable overall. On the industry front, China's weekly alumina production continued to edge up this week, with growth mainly from the sustained release of new capacity in Guangxi, keeping overall supply high and edging further upward. Futures prices have fallen sharply recently, overall market sentiment is weak, and futures prices have plunged. Looking ahead, futures prices are expected to remain at low levels. Looking ahead, no maintenance or production cut plans have been heard from enterprises so far, and supply pressure is expected to keep growing. On the inventory side, high production and gradually emerging winter stockpiling demand are offsetting each other, and China's total alumina inventory is expected to continue a mild buildup trend. On the price side, the loose supply-demand balance remains unchanged, upward momentum is weak, and spot prices are expected to keep falling.
[All data other than public information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.]
