The most-traded SHFE tin SN2611 contract closed at 375,980 yuan/mt in the night session, down 0.37%. LME tin 3M closed at $50,384/mt, up 0.52%. LME inventory continued to decline to 4,110 mt [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM Tin Morning Brief | The most-traded SHFE tin SN2611 contract closed at 375,980 yuan/mt in the night session, down 0.37%; LME tin 3M closed at $50,384/mt, up 0.52%; LME inventory fell further to 4,110 mt — Monday, October 19, 2026

[Futures] The most-traded SHFE tin SN2611 contract opened at 378,190 in Friday's night session, hit a high of 380,590 and a low of 375,240, and closed at 375,980 yuan/mt, down 1,390 yuan or 0.37%. Open interest rose further to 33,071 lots, with volume at 72,743 lots and turnover of 27.498 billion yuan. Prices initially shot up toward the 380,000 mark before giving back some gains, as bulls added positions to push the price center higher. LME tin 3M closed at $50,384/mt on Friday, up $259 or 0.52%, after opening at 50,600, hitting a high of 51,250 and a low of 50,000, with the ratio of cancelled warrants at 14.23%. LME and SHFE trends diverged — LME tin stabilized and recovered, while SHFE tin was slightly under pressure, dragged by weak domestic spot cargo.

[Macro] US September CPI rose 3.7% YoY, beating expectations. New York Fed President Williams signaled a hawkish pace — one more rate hike this year, then a pause in 2027. The US dollar remained firm, but sticky core inflation and AI infrastructure investment create long-term inflation variables, which are neutral-to-bearish for tin prices.

[Spot] SMM #1 tin spot quotation range on Friday was 377,400-379,700 yuan/mt. Upstream sellers held offers firm, generally unwilling to sell below 400,000, with strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market and limited actual transactions.

[Fundamentals] LME tin inventory fell further to 4,110 mt (-95), with the ratio of cancelled warrants at 14.23%, indicating continued tightening in ex-China spot circulation. SHFE tin futures warrants stood at 2,860 mt (-420), with domestic warrants continuing to draw down. Supply-side rigid support remains: production resumptions in Myanmar's Wa State are only at 40-50%, and Yunnan Tin Co. began maintenance shutdowns on September 30 for no more than 45 days. On the demand side, the "September-October peak season" has underperformed expectations — consecutive sell-offs in US chip stocks dragged down AI computing solder expectations, downstream users resisted high prices with weak restocking willingness, and the November contract held high premiums but saw sluggish trading.

[Summary] Tight supply-demand conditions (low inventory + ore-side support) and a bearish macro front (hawkish rate hikes + weak demand) are locked in a tug-of-war. SHFE tin faces resistance at the 380,000 mark, with 370,000 serving as technical support. The market is expected to consolidate on a subdued note going forward, pending demand-side confirmation.