Fundamentals Show Strong Resilience, Lead Prices May Continue to Consolidate [SMM Weekly Lead Market Forecast]

         Next week, on the macroeconomic data front, China's Q3 GDP annual growth rate, the final reading of the US October University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, and the final reading of the US October one-year inflation expectations will be released. Recently, Fed Chairman Warsh said during the IMF and World Bank Group 2026 Annual Meetings in Bangkok that global conditions have largely evolved as expected since the September FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, investors have scaled back expectations for Fed rate hikes, with the probability of a hike falling from around 27% to below 15% after Warsh's remarks.

For LME lead, overseas lead inventories continued to decline, while the LME Cash-3M contango widened to -$40.66/mt. This was confirmed by loosening refined lead supply in the Southeast Asian market, with premiums for high-grade lead ingots being lowered. SMM Vietnam lead ingot 99.99-99.995% CIF premium was reported at $200/mt. With near-term fundamentals unremarkable and US dollar rate hike expectations weakening, lead prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note next week, with LME lead trading in the range of $1,870-1,905/mt.

For SHFE lead, the recovery in domestic refined lead supply fell short of expectations, with both primary lead and secondary lead seeing regional supply tightness. Lead ingot inventories remained low, and spot prices held premiums against futures. Meanwhile, the most-traded SHFE lead 2611 contract and the 2612 contract formed a backwardation structure, indicating strong price resilience but lacking fresh upward momentum. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade in the range of 16,000-16,350 yuan/mt next week.

Spot lead price forecast: 16,050-16,300 yuan/mt. Maintenance at primary lead enterprises continues, keeping spot supply tight. However, as cargoes re-enter the circulation market after delivery next week, spot premiums may ease slightly. Meanwhile, secondary lead enterprises are seeing maintenance and production resumptions occur simultaneously, and with difficulties in recycling scrap batteries with proper invoicing, refined lead supply is unlikely to see significant growth. On the consumption side, downstream enterprises are purchasing as needed, with some having already made advance purchases. Going forward, they will mainly pick up goods, and purchasing activity may slow.