Futures:
Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,902.0/mt, briefly plunged at the end of the Asian session to a low of $1,879.0/mt, then rebounded slightly from the low after entering the European session, and finally settled at $1,887.0/mt, down $14.5/mt or 0.76% from the previous trading day's closing price. Trading volume was 9,564 lots, open interest was 185,832 lots, down 1,168 lots, and the daily candlestick closed as a large bearish candle.
Overnight, the SHFE lead 2611 contract opened at 16,155 yuan/mt, moved sideways within the 16,179-16,215 yuan/mt range during the day, and finally settled at 16,210 yuan/mt, down slightly by 5 yuan/mt or 0.03% from the previous trading day's closing price. Trading volume was 23,899 lots, open interest was 44,525 lots, down 810 lots, and the daily candlestick closed as a small bearish candle.
Yesterday, the SHFE lead current-month 2610 contract settled at 16,275 yuan/mt, with a settlement price of 16,290 yuan/mt, open interest of 4,115 lots, delivery volume of 20,575 mt, SHFE lead ingot warrant inventory of 38,026 mt, and the SHFE lead 2610 contract achieved smooth delivery.
On the macro front:
Overseas: The US September PPI annual rate came in at 6.3%, the highest since May 2026, with a monthly rate of 1.3%; September retail sales rose 0.8% month-on-month, both exceeding expectations and showing that inflation remains resilient. However, the market instead scaled back expectations for a US Fed rate hike this month, and the US dollar index retreated after a rapid rise, closing down 0.52%. Nevertheless, Fed official Hammack stated that if inflation expectations worsen, the Fed may be forced to take more aggressive action, and hawkish voices remain. Geopolitically, tensions in the Middle East escalated again, with an Iranian oil tanker catching fire in the Strait of Hormuz, and the US reportedly having drawn up a new strike plan against Iran; Russia and Ukraine struck each other's energy facilities. Crude oil fell first and then rose, maintaining high volatility.
China: On October 15, Lan Fo'an and Pan Gongsheng attended the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting; the NDRC said domestic refined oil prices would not be adjusted; the MIIT and two other departments jointly investigated the issue of vehicle brake pedal bracket fractures; Shenzhen introduced reforms to the commercial housing sales system.
Spot fundamentals:
Yesterday, SMM #1 lead price fell 100 yuan/mt from the last trading day before the holiday. SHFE lead continued to consolidate and lead prices pulled back, making downstream purchasing more cautious. Market circulating supply remained relatively tight, and suppliers still quoted at premiums, but premiums were slightly lower than in previous days, with some easing in south China. Mainstream production-area primary lead was quoted at a premium of 0-100 yuan/mt over the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works; secondary refined lead smelters held back from selling at low prices, quoting at a premium of 50-100 yuan/mt over the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. Downstream buyers mainly made just-in-time procurement with few inquiries, and overall trading activity was weak.
Inventory: As of October 15, total SMM lead ingot social inventory across the five regions reached 46,100 mt, down 0.43 mt from October 8 and down 4,500 mt from October 12. LME lead inventory stood at 339,800 mt, down 275 mt from the previous trading day; total SHFE lead ingot warrant inventory was 34,539 mt, down 3,487 mt from the previous trading day.
Today's lead price forecast:
Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract broke below the 20/40/60-day moving averages, while SHFE lead 2611 consolidated slightly lower in the night session, with both SHFE and LME weakening from highs in tandem. In the spot market, circulating supply remained tight. With SHFE lead 2610 delivery just completed, suppliers quoted at premiums and smelters held back from selling at low prices, lending some support to spot prices. However, downstream purchases remained largely need-based, overall trading activity was subdued, and spot prices struggled to catch up. Today, spot lead prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note with small fluctuations.
