Inventory Changes of Aluminum Ingots and Billets Around the 2026 National Day Holiday (Updated to October 15) [SMM Data]

October 15 news:

[SMM Inventory Statistics] According to SMM statistics, changes in aluminum ingot and aluminum billet (collectively referred to as aluminum inventory) inventories at major consumption areas in China around the National Day holiday from 2020 to 2026: overall destocking before the holiday, the most concentrated inventory buildup during the holiday, and a pullback after the holiday. During the one-week National Day holiday from 2020 to 2025 (September 30 to October 8), aluminum ingot, aluminum billet, and aluminum inventory all accumulated, with aluminum ingot increases of 4.0%-17.3%, aluminum billet increases of 12.7%-66.0%, and aluminum inventory increases of 6.9%-21.2%. The inventory buildup of aluminum billet was significantly greater than that of aluminum ingot. In the second week after the holiday (October 22), aluminum ingot did not accumulate again except in 2021, while aluminum billet turned to destocking in all six years.

In 2026, before the holiday, aluminum ingot destocked sharply for three consecutive weeks, decreasing by 63,000 mt (-7.9%) on September 17, 55,000 mt (-7.5%) on September 24, and 40,000 mt on September 30 compared with September 24, with a cumulative destocking of 158,000 mt over three weeks, the steepest for the same period in history. Aluminum billet destocked slightly in the first two weeks and turned to a slight increase of 500 mt in the third week. On September 10, aluminum inventory was 949,000 mt, the highest for the same period since 2020. By September 30, it fell to 787,500 mt (aluminum ingot 638,000 mt, aluminum billet 149,500 mt). During the one-week holiday (October 8), aluminum ingot, aluminum billet, and aluminum inventory accumulated by 48,000 mt (+7.5%), 38,000 mt (+25.4%), and 86,000 mt (+10.9%), respectively, with the aluminum billet buildup being the second highest in history. In the first week after the holiday (October 15), they turned to destocking, decreasing by 50,000 mt (-7.3%), 19,000 mt (-10.1%), and 69,000 mt (-7.9%) respectively compared with October 8, bringing aluminum inventory down to 804,500 mt (aluminum ingot 636,000 mt, aluminum billet 168,500 mt).