China's 6063 Aluminum Billet Inventory Falls on October 15

[SMM Inventory Statistics] According to SMM statistics, aluminum ingot inventory in major domestic consumption sites of China stood at 636,000 tonnes and 6063 aluminum billet inventory at 168,500 tonnes on October 15, down 50,000 tonnes and 19,000 tonnes respectively from the National Day holiday peak on October 8.

Oct 15 news: [SMM Inventory Statistics] According to SMM statistics, changes in aluminum ingot and aluminum billet inventories (collectively referred to as aluminum inventory) in major domestic consumption areas around the National Day holiday, 2020-2026: overall destocking before the holiday, with the most concentrated inventory buildup during the holiday, followed by a pullback after the holiday. During the one-week National Day holiday (September 30 to October 8) from 2020 to 2025, aluminum ingot, aluminum billet, and aluminum inventory all accumulated, with aluminum ingot increases of 4.0%-17.3%, aluminum billet increases of 12.7%-66.0%, and aluminum inventory increases of 6.9%-21.2%, with the aluminum billet buildup significantly larger than that of aluminum ingots; in the second week after the holiday (October 22), aluminum ingots did not accumulate again except in 2021, while aluminum billets shifted to destocking in all six years.

[US inflation lifts rate hike expectations; export destocking underpins aluminum prices in the doldrums] US September CPI data came in above market expectations, and expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes continued to heat up, persistently weighing on valuations across the nonferrous metals sector. On the domestic front, September exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum semis reached the highest monthly export level in the past three months, with the aluminum semis export trend remaining solid. Combined with the continued destocking of China's aluminum ingot social inventory, this provided support for prices. Overall, under the pressure of expected US Fed rate hikes, aluminum prices are expected to maintain a weak trend in the short term.