US Fed's October meeting rate hike expectations heat up, most-traded SHFE tin contract continues to decline in night session [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM Tin Morning Brief | US Fed October Meeting Rate Hike Expectations Rise, Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Falls in Night Session — October 15, 2026 (Thursday)

[Futures]

The most-traded SHFE tin SN2611 contract closed at 372,820 yuan/mt in the night session, down 13,090 yuan or 3.39% from the previous settlement of 385,910,with a night session range of 374,990–378,380, a low of 371,200, and trading volume of 95,800 lots.

LME 3M closed at $50,446/mt, down $1,321 or 2.55%, while the LME official 3-month Closing Price stood at $51,767/mt, down 2.71%.

[Inventory]

• LME tin inventory on 10/14 was 4,250 mt, up 35 mt from 4,215 mt the previous day; live warrants at 3,275 mt and cancelled at 905 mt.
• SHFE tin futures warrants on 10/14 were 3,536 mt, down 70 mt from the previous day (Shanghai 708, Guangdong 2,704, Jiangsu 124 mt).
• SMM's latest weekly report on China tin ingot social inventory showed 8,750 mt, a mild post-holiday inventory buildup of +117 mt from 9/30, with absolute levels still in the lower range for the year.

[Macro] US Fed October meeting rate hike expectations have risen, with CME FedWatch showing the probability of a 25bp hike in October at recent-month highs. The Cleveland Fed released hawkish remarks, the US dollar DXY >102, and US Treasury yields fluctuated at highs, pressuring valuations of high-beta assets. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 2.67% intraday, and the pullback in AI computing chain sentiment directly transmitted to tin demand expectations. Middle East tensions remained volatile, and OPEC+ production cuts underpinned oil prices at highs, providing a floor for tin rather than a boost.

[Fundamentals] Ore supply: Myanmar Wa State production resumptions remained slower than expected, recovering to 40–50%; the rainy season and explosives controls continued to disrupt tin concentrate imports; Indonesia's export quotas/policies remained uncertain; DRC geopolitical risks still had marginal impact on LME. Smelting: Tin Co. began routine maintenance from 9/30 for no more than 45 days; refined tin operating rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces pulled back to a low level of 29.74%. Demand: SMM China tin solder enterprise operating rate was 72.8% in August (flat in the off-season); it rose to 79.1% in September (+5% YoY). High-end solder for AI servers and advanced packaging maintained resilience, while traditional consumer electronics and home appliance tin solder orders saw limited recovery, with the September peak season falling short of expectations. Imports: Tin ore imports in August were 19,300 mt, up 14% MoM and 88% YoY.

[Spot Market] After SHFE tin fell sharply on 10/14, downstream inquiries were relatively active in the morning with transactions at low prices; in the afternoon, futures accelerated their decline, and suppliers held back from selling, keeping quotes at premiums.