October 13 SMM cast aluminum alloy morning comment
Futures: Overnight, the most-traded AD2612 contract opened at 23,220 yuan/mt, shot up to 23,300 yuan/mt before drifting lower, dipped to 23,075 yuan/mt, and closed at 23,105 yuan/mt, down 70 yuan/mt or 0.30%, with a trading range of 23,075-23,300 yuan/mt. Trading volume was 6,176 lots, down 6,246 lots from the previous trading day, while open interest increased by 498 lots. The DKX indicator's B line is below the D line, and the KD indicator's K value is below the D value, suggesting a subdued consolidation in the short term.
Basis daily: According to SMM data, on October 12, the theoretical premium of SMM ADC12 spot price over the closing price of the most-traded cast aluminum alloy contract (AD2612) at 10:15 was 1,150 yuan/mt.
Warrant daily: SHFE data showed that on October 12, total registered warrants for cast aluminum alloy stood at 17,403 mt, down 1,171 mt from the previous trading day.
Industry news: According to CAAM data, in September, auto production and sales reached 2.99 million and 2.956 million units, up 11.4% and 9% MoM, and down 8.7% and 8.4% YoY, respectively. From January to September, auto production and sales totaled 23.246 million and 23.271 million units, both down 4.5% YoY. In September, NEV production and sales reached 1.814 million and 1.823 million units, up 12.2% and 13.6% YoY, respectively. NEV sales accounted for 61.6% of total new vehicle sales. From January to September, NEV production and sales totaled 12.483 million and 12.472 million units, up 11% and 11.1% YoY, respectively, with NEV sales accounting for 53.6% of total new vehicle sales.
Aluminum scrap: On Monday, SMM A00 aluminum price closed at 23,810 yuan/mt, up 160 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Price performance diverged across aluminum scrap categories, with baled UBC prices unchanged and aluminum tense scrap prices raised by 100 yuan/mt. In terms of price spreads, the price difference between A00 aluminum and mixed aluminum extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan was about 2,492 yuan/mt, and the price difference between A00 aluminum and shredded aluminum tense scrap was about 1,160 yuan/mt. Supply side, aluminum scrap availability increased somewhat, but recycling policies continued to constrain circulation, with invoice quota limitations widespread and tight invoice supply unlikely to ease in the short term. Tight supply will continue to support prices. Demand side, aluminum tense scrap prices are expected to find stronger support amid tight supply and demand. Demand for wrought aluminum alloy is moderate, and in-factory inventory is relatively ample, but tax audit restrictions are expected to reduce aluminum scrap supply, gradually opening a channel for price increases.
Silicon metal: On October 12, SMM prices in east China were stable for non-oxygen blown #553, oxygen-blown #553, #521, #441, #421, #421 for silicone use, and #3303.
Markets outside China: On the import side, overseas ADC12 offers held steady at $3,060-3,160/mt. As domestic prices rose, import breakeven returned to positive territory, and future attention should be paid to replenishment of imported cargoes.
Summary: On Monday, the ADC12 market center moved slightly higher, with SMM ADC12 price up 100 yuan/mt from the previous day to 24,500 yuan/mt. Cost side, higher aluminum and copper prices pushed up procurement costs for aluminum scrap and copper alloy elements, while invoice issues continued to constrain compliant raw material procurement. Enterprise cost pressure persists, providing strong support for ADC12 prices and limiting near-term downside. Demand side remains subdued, with traditional September-October peak season demand falling short of expectations, constraining the sustainability of price increases. Overall, the ADC12 market currently features strong cost support but insufficient demand follow-through, with the contradiction between the willingness to hold prices firm and downstream acceptance persisting. Prices are expected to move sideways in the short term, with future upside dependent on aluminum price trends, raw material cost changes, and actual downstream procurement.
[Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.]
![SHFE aluminum pulls back while LME aluminum stabilizes slightly, as the tug-of-war between longs and shorts in the aluminum market continues to consolidate [SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/tkWbz20251217171654.jpg)
![[SMM Analysis]Tug-of-war between sellers and buyers continues, ADC12 prices expected to consolidate at highs in October](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/ECUsL20251217171652.jpg)
