The most-traded SHFE tin SN2611 contract closed at 396,810 yuan/mt in the daytime session, up 1.44%, while LME tin edged up $200 to $53,209/mt [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM Tin Morning Brief | Most-traded SHFE tin SN2611 daytime session closed at 396,810 yuan/mt, up 1.44%; LME tin at $53,209/mt, up slightly by over $200 — Tuesday, October 13, 2026

[Futures] The most-traded SHFE tin contract has automatically rolled to SN2611 based on open interest (SHFE open interest was 34,164 lots on October 12, the largest for the current period; SN2612 at 16,649 lots and SN2610 at 1,160 lots have fallen to secondary positions). The most-traded SN2611 contract closed at 396,810 yuan/mt in the daytime session on October 12, up +5,640 yuan / +1.44% from the previous settlement of 391,170; it opened at 395,990, hit a high of 400,500 and a low of 393,830, with a reference settlement price of 397,560; trading volume was 105,193 lots and open interest was 34,164 lots. LME 3M tin closed at $53,209/mt on October 12, up +$203 (about +0.38%) from the previous close, making a modest recovery in line with the domestic rebound (LME tin had plunged 5.22% to $51,447/mt on October 9, then recovered to $53,000/mt as risk appetite stabilized, and converged further toward $53,209 on October 12).

[Inventory in Three Dimensions] ① LME tin inventory at 4,250 mt (October 12), down 15 mt on the day; cancelled warrants at 990 mt, cancelled warrant ratio at 23.29% (the ratio remains in a high range, signaling tight overseas spot supply). ② SHFE tin futures warrants at 3,426 mt (October 12), down 568 mt on the day; of which Shanghai 816 mt, Guangdong 2,486 mt, and Jiangsu 124 mt — warrants continued their destocking pace during the week. ③ SMM China tin ingot social inventory, according to SMM data released on October 9: a mild post-holiday inventory buildup of +117 mt, far smaller than pre-holiday fluctuations, with absolute levels still in a low range; in the week before the Mid-Autumn Festival, inventory had once fallen by 982 mt to 8,633 mt.

[Macro] On October 12, LME base metals broadly rose (LME copper +$78, LME aluminum +$4, LME tin +$203), with market risk appetite seeing a marginal recovery. US September nonfarm payrolls released on October 9 showed an increase of only +29,000 jobs (far below market expectations of 72,000, with the prior figure also significantly revised down), and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.2%; market pricing for a US Fed rate hike in October fell from about 70% to around 50%. However, the 30-year Treasury yield briefly broke above 5.6%, the highest since 2002, while the 10-year held steady at 5.23%, meaning the pressure from overseas interest rates has not been lifted. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East persist, and high international oil prices continue to support sticky overseas inflation; there is still disagreement over whether the US Fed will hike rates again in December.

[Fundamentals] Mine side: Production resumptions in Wa State, Myanmar have only recovered to 40-50% of previous levels, and supply elasticity of tin ore and recycled tin raw materials remains insufficient; on the Indonesia side, the pace of exports remains a key focus. Smelting side: According to SMM data on October 9, the maintenance wave caused Yunnan's operating rate to plunge by 21.8 percentage points, with the combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces pulling back to 29.74%, a three-month low, as smelting operations remain constrained. Demand side: Structural resilience persists in semiconductor sectors such as AI servers and advanced packaging; traditional solder/consumer electronics demand growth remains sluggish.

[Spot Market] October 12 (Monday) review: SHFE tin SN2611 opened lower with a gap and then recovered alongside LME tin, with the day session futures reclaiming the 395,000 yuan mark and closing at 396,800 yuan, spot premiums at 70-80 yuan/mt, and overall trading pace fluctuating with prices. October 13 (Tuesday) forecast: With macro pressure easing marginally, SHFE tin's center may continue to recover toward the 397,000-400,000 yuan/mt range, but the 400,000 yuan round-number resistance above remains under pressure—with overseas long-end rates elevated, the US Fed's December rate hike expectations not yet faded, and mild social inventory buildup after the holiday, an upside breakout still requires both trading volume and open interest to increase in tandem; the 390,000 yuan level below serves as a short-term support zone backed by hard constraints on the mine side + maintenance season + high canceled warrant ratio.

Key judgment: Open interest in the most-traded SHFE tin SN2611 contract has surpassed that of SN2612, officially taking over as the new most-traded contract, with futures stabilizing above the 395,000 yuan mark; LME tin rebounded in tandem to $53,209/mt, and a corrective rebound may unfold in the short term, but upside is limited under the 400,000 yuan resistance and overseas interest rate pressure, with attention on night session open interest changes and US Treasury yield trends.