[SMM Tin Midday Review] Macro Pressure Eases at the Margin; SHFE Tin Rebounds but Encounters Resistance Above

Published: Oct 12, 2026 12:22 (GMT+8)

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[SMM Tin Midday Review: Macro Pressure Eases at the Margin, SHFE Tin Rebounds but Encounters Resistance Above]

Tin Spot Market Midday Commentary for October 12, 2026

1. Price Review

Today, SMM #1 tin spot was quoted at 398,000-399,300 yuan/mt, with an average price of 398,650 yuan/mt, up 5,000 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

The most-traded SHFE tin contract extended its recovery from last Friday. During today's session, it hit an intraday high of 400,500 yuan/mt, briefly approaching the 400,000 yuan mark, and dipped to a low of 393,830 yuan/mt. It closed the morning at 398,930 yuan/mt, up 7,760 yuan/mt, or 1.98%, from the previous trading day's settlement price (391,170 yuan/mt). Intraday open interest fell by 1,222 lots to 33,747 lots. The contract retreated immediately after touching the 400,000 yuan level, indicating persistent overhead resistance.

On the LME, LME tin 3M pulled back slightly to $52,900/mt, down $100/mt, or 0.19%, from the previous trading day.

2. Macro Front

Pressure eased marginally: the 10-year US Treasury yield shot up before retreating to 5.246%, ending a five-week winning streak. The US dollar index remained at 102.12, up for a fourth straight week (the longest weekly winning streak in 21 months), but its upward momentum weakened somewhat. US Fed officials maintained a hawkish but flexible stance—Waller reiterated that further rate hikes are still needed, but they do not have to occur at consecutive meetings and the timing can be flexible. Market pricing for an October hike has dropped to just 19%, though the probability of a cumulative 25 bp hike by end-December stands at 84%. Year-end tightening expectations have not been removed, only the expected pace has slowed. This suggests the current rebound is a "recovery amid easing pressure" rather than a "reversal after pressure removal."

On the domestic front, conditions recovered marginally. The official manufacturing PMI for September came in at 50.1, returning to expansion territory. The Ministry of Finance arranged the use of 550 billion yuan in local government debt carryover quota. China and the EU reached an understanding on hybrid vehicle trade. The offshore yuan strengthened past 6.70, approaching a four-year high.

3. Spot Market

Today, futures rebounded to the 398,000-400,000 yuan zone, and the SMM average price rose 5,000 yuan to 398,650 yuan/mt. Downstream buyers showed limited willingness to chase higher prices, spot transactions were thin, and the market was dominated by a wait-and-see digestion of the move. "Sharp declines trigger buying, rebounds suppress purchasing." If prices pull back to low levels again, a new round of purchasing demand is expected to emerge.

4. Outlook

In the short term, prices remain primarily driven by macro factors. Although the US dollar index pulled back slightly and the US Treasury yield ended its winning streak, absolute levels remain high, and the expectation of a rate hike by end-December (84%) has not faded. This caps the upside for the rebound. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to consolidate in the 390,000-405,000 yuan/mt range in the near term.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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