SMM, October 10:
In the metals market:
Overnight, base metals on the domestic market nearly all rose. SHFE copper gained 0.84%, SHFE aluminum and SHFE lead rose 0.96% and 0.72%, respectively. SHFE zinc rose 1.39%, and SHFE tin gained 1.73%. SHFE nickel fell 0.44%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract edged up 0.19%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract rose 0.41%.
Overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose. Stainless steel fell 0.26%. Iron ore edged up 0.07%, and rebar rose 0.55%. Hot-rolled coil gained 0.62%. In coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 3.39%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 2.81%.
Overnight in the overseas metals market, LME base metals all rose. LME copper gained 1.68%, and LME aluminum rose 0.21%. LME lead gained 1.37%. LME zinc rose 2.32%. LME tin gained 3.02%. LME nickel rose 0.95%.
Overnight in precious metals: COMEX gold rose 1.52%, with COMEX gold posting a weekly gain of 1.39% WoW; COMEX silver gained 2.84%, with COMEX silver closing the week higher, up 1.15% WoW. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 1.05%, with SHFE gold posting a weekly gain of 0.4% WoW; the most-traded SHFE silver contract gained 2.23%, while SHFE silver fell for a third consecutive week, down 1.41% WoW.
As of 8:07 on October 10, overnight closing prices:
Macro front
Domestic:
[Accelerating the development of new quality productive forces! The CPC Central Committee and the State Council issue a major document!] To accelerate the development of new quality productive forces, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the Opinions on Developing New Quality Productive Forces. The Opinions lay out 19 key measures across five areas: vigorously advancing scientific and technological innovation, promoting the deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, focusing on advancing innovation in development models, solidly advancing institutional and mechanism innovation, and deepening innovation in talent work mechanisms. The Opinions make clear that China will adhere to innovation-driven leadership, reform as the priority, tailored measures based on local conditions, and establishing the new before abolishing the old; adhere to high technology, high efficiency, and high quality; coordinate the relationships between government and market, quality and business forms, reform and development, and self-reliance and openness; coordinate development and security; take technological innovation as the guide and a substantial increase in total factor productivity as the core indicator; promote revolutionary technological breakthroughs, innovative allocation of production factors, and deep industrial transformation and upgrading; promote the optimized combination and upgrading of workers, means of labor, and objects of labor; advance technological innovation, industrial innovation, development model innovation, institutional and mechanism innovation, and talent work mechanism innovation in all respects; accelerate the formation of production relations more suited to new quality productive forces; foster a favorable development ecosystem conducive to the deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation; and better support high-quality development.
[NDRC: AI is the core support for developing new quality productive forces and building a modern industrial system] A responsible official from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) answered reporters' questions on the Opinions on Developing New Quality Productive Forces. AI is the core support for developing new quality productive forces and building a modern industrial system. AI is moving from the laboratory into production and daily life, giving rise to new fields and new tracks such as autonomous driving, humanoid robots, autonomous flying drones, brain-computer interfaces, smartphones, smart TVs, smart computers, and smart wearable devices, while also playing an important role in empowering the upgrading of traditional industries. The Opinions prominently emphasize the full implementation of the "AI+" initiative, aiming to promote the deep integration of AI with the real economy, help transform and upgrade traditional industries, cultivate and strengthen emerging industries, and make forward-looking arrangements for future industries; promptly apply intelligent innovation achievements to specific industries and specific industry chains; drive industries toward high-end and green development through intelligence; and empower the transformation and upgrading of all industries. (Jin10 Data APP)
[China-EU Trade and Investment Consultation Joint Statement: Reaching an understanding on hybrid vehicle trade, further strengthening export control dialogue, and willing to facilitate export approval for rare earth permanent magnets] On October 8-9, 2026, Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao and European Commission Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security Maros Sefcovic held the second regular meeting of the China-EU Trade and Investment Consultation Mechanism (hereinafter referred to as the Mechanism) in Beijing. The two sides reached multiple consensuses on topics including trade and investment balance, export controls, intellectual property protection, and WTO reform. The two sides reached an understanding on hybrid vehicle trade and will continue to advance procedures related to price commitments by enterprises and review in the EV anti-subsidy case. Regarding medical devices, the EU side welcomed China's measures to expand imports of EU medical devices, including holding procurement matchmaking sessions during the 9th China International Import Expo; China will facilitate export licensing approval for rare earths and permanent magnets to the EU through a "green channel" mechanism.
[Preview: State Council Information Office to hold press conference next Wednesday at 10:00 a.m.; GACC to brief on import and export data for the first three quarters of 2026] The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 10:00 a.m. on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, inviting Wang Jun, spokesperson and deputy commissioner of the General Administration of Customs (GACC), to brief on import and export data for the first three quarters of 2026 and answer reporters' questions.
[SHFE: Adjusting price limit ranges and trading margin ratios for fuel oil and petroleum asphalt futures contracts] According to the SHFE, after study and decision, effective from the close of trading and settlement on Monday, October 12, 2026, the price limit ranges and trading margin ratios will be adjusted as follows: For fuel oil futures contracts FU2612 and FU2701, the price limit range will be 16%, the trading margin ratio for hedging positions will be 17%, and the trading margin ratio for general positions will be 18%. For petroleum asphalt futures contracts BU2610, BU2611, BU2612, and BU2701, the price limit range will be 12%, the trading margin ratio for hedging positions will be 13%, and the trading margin ratio for general positions will be 14%.
[Consolidating the technical foundation: China accelerates international standardization in the low-altitude economy] China is deeply involved in low-altitude economy standardization work at the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) and the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC), promoting the initiation, development, and release of international standards. Among them, the UAV Perception and Obstacle Avoidance System standard, which China co-led in developing, filled a gap in international standards in the relevant field. The Cards and security devices for personal identification — Unmanned aircraft system (UAS) license and drone/UAS security module — Part 5: Test methods for drone/UAS security module, proposed under China's leadership, was successfully initiated as the first international standard proposal in the field of UAS identity identification. (CCTV News)
[Shanghai International Energy Exchange: Adjusting trading limits for crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures contracts] Shanghai International Energy Exchange: After study and decision, effective from the trading session on October 13, 2026 (i.e., the night session of October 12), the trading limits for non-futures company members, overseas special non-brokerage participants, and clients in crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures contracts will be adjusted as follows: The maximum number of intraday opening trades for crude oil futures contracts SC2612 and SC2701 will be 800 lots. The maximum number of intraday opening trades for low-sulfur fuel oil futures contracts LU2611, LU2612, and LU2701 will be 1,500 lots.
US dollar:
Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.1% to 102.23. Weekly: the US dollar index rose for a fourth consecutive week, up 0.29% WoW. Market participants are weighing persistent inflation concerns and the future direction of the US Fed's interest rate policy.
US consumer confidence fell further in early October, with consumers' assessment of current economic conditions dropping to a record low, as persistently high inflation weighs on US household finances. The preliminary survey released by the University of Michigan on Friday showed the October consumer sentiment index fell to 46.3, the lowest since May. The current economic conditions index plunged from 50.9 in September to 44.7, the lowest on record. Meanwhile, the consumer expectations index rose from 46.3 to 47.3, the first increase since July. With gasoline prices staying high, borrowing costs rising, and hiring slowing, US consumer confidence continues to deteriorate. The survey showed consumers expect prices to rise 4.7% over the next year, up from 4.6% in September. Long-term inflation expectations for the next 5 to 10 years rose to an annualized 3.5%, slightly above September's level. Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan consumer survey, said in a statement that this month saw a notable decline in confidence among low-income consumers and those with smaller stock portfolios. (Jin10 Data APP)
The US Fed's latest Survey of Consumer Finances shows that US household debt stress is intensifying, with more borrowers falling behind on loan payments or needing to devote a larger share of income to debt repayment. The survey showed the median household debt-service-to-income ratio rose to 15.4%, up 2 percentage points from 2022. The US Fed noted this may be related to rising mortgage and consumer loan rates over the same period. Meanwhile, the share of households with heavy debt-service burdens rose from 6.5% in 2022 to 8.6% in 2025, the highest since the survey began in 2013. These households' debt payments account for 40% or more of their income. More notably, from 2022 to 2025, the share of households reporting loan delinquencies rose sharply from about 12% to nearly 20%. These data indicate that as borrowing costs rise, US households not only need to devote more income to debt repayment, but loan delinquencies have also increased markedly, reflecting deteriorating financial conditions for some households. (Jin10 Data APP)
In addition, according to a notice published on the White House website on Friday, US President Trump announced the establishment of a special committee to investigate allegations against US Fed Governor Lisa Cook. According to the notice dated October 7, Trump said: "To assist me in fulfilling this responsibility, the committee will investigate the allegations against Governor Cook and report to me whether there is 'just cause' for her removal." The investigation will focus on assessing whether Cook meets the legal conditions for removal, and does not yet mean she has been removed. (Jin10 Data APP)
Other currencies:
Capital Economics economist Thomas Ryan said that after two consecutive months of sharp declines in Canadian employment and a slight rise in the unemployment rate, only a September inflation reading significantly above expectations could bring the option of a rate hike by the Bank of Canada back into discussion later this month. Canada's September employment fell by 68,300, notably worse than the market consensus of a slight increase and also below Capital Economics' earlier forecast of flat employment. However, Ryan believes the actual employment situation is not as bad as the headline data suggest. He noted that part of the decline reflects a pullback among young workers after unusually strong summer hiring, while the weakness was concentrated mainly in the public sector. Ryan still expects the Bank of Canada to wait until 2027 before beginning to normalize its policy rate. (Jin10 Data APP)
Russia's September consumer prices rose 6.35% YoY, above the market expectation of 6.3%, and rose 0.35% MoM, with inflation remaining above the central bank's 4% target. Although seasonal price declines in fruits and vegetables contained some of the increase, weekly price gains jumped from 0.12% to 0.96% after regulated prices such as utilities were raised this month. The chief economist at CentroCredit Bank said he previously expected the Russian central bank to keep its benchmark rate at 14% through year-end, but another rate hike has now become a realistic possibility. The Russian central bank will hold its rate-setting meeting on October 23. Last month, it paused rate cuts for the first time since June 2025 due to inflation risks from fuel supply disruptions and increased government spending. The central bank had already raised its end-2026 inflation forecast to 6% to 7%, implying inflation will exceed the target for a seventh consecutive year. In addition, Ukraine's continued attacks on Russian refineries have disrupted the fuel market, and the fiscal deficit is expected to reach twice the original plan, further intensifying price pressures. (Jin10 Data APP)
Data:
Next week will see the release of Germany's final September CPI MoM, the US September NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, the US ADP employment change for the week ended September 26, US September existing home sales annualized, China's September CPI YoY, US September unadjusted CPI YoY, and US September seasonally adjusted CPI MoM
、US September core CPI MoM after seasonal adjustment、US September core CPI YoY without seasonal adjustment、China September trade balance、Australia September unemployment rate after seasonal adjustment、UK August three-month GDP MoM、UK August manufacturing output MoM、UK August goods trade balance after seasonal adjustment、UK August industrial output MoM、France September final CPI MoM、Eurozone August industrial output MoM、Canada August wholesale sales MoM、US initial jobless claims for the week ending October 10、US September retail sales MoM、US September PPI YoY、US September PPI MoM、US October New York Fed manufacturing index、US October Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index、US August business inventories MoM、China September total electricity consumption YoY、China September total electricity consumption、Eurozone September final CPI YoY、Eurozone September final CPI MoM、Eurozone August trade balance after seasonal adjustment、US September import price index MoM、US September industrial output MoM, among other data.
In addition, next week will also see: the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, through the 18th; 2026 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Hammack speaking; the Reserve Bank of Australia releasing the minutes of its September monetary policy meeting; Fed Governor Waller speaking at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in India; Apple holding a smart home product launch event in New York; 2028 FOMC voting member and Boston Fed President Collins speaking; Bank of Canada Governor Macklem participating in a fireside chat at the Institute of International Finance (IIF) Annual Membership Meeting in Bangkok; ECB President Lagarde speaking on Europe's digital future; Fed Governor Bowman speaking; the Fed releasing the Beige Book on economic conditions; a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustments opening; the National Energy Administration releasing total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month; the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting; 2026 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Hammack speaking; Bank of England Governor Bailey participating in a fireside chat; Fed Chairman Warsh attending the IMF Annual Meetings in Bangkok and holding a fireside chat with IMF Managing Director Georgieva; Bank of Canada Governor Macklem attending the IMF Annual Meetings and participating in a panel session; Bank of England Governor Bailey speaking.
On the crude oil front:
Overnight, both oil futures edged up, with WTI crude up 0.19% and Brent crude up 0.25%. On the weekly chart, WTI crude futures rose, gaining 0.6% for the week; Brent crude futures rose for a second straight week, up 2.24% for the week. Concerns over continued conflict in the Middle East and a hurricane approaching the northern Gulf of Mexico, which prompted the US to shut in more crude oil capacity, supported oil prices. However, Trump's announcement that Russia would release diesel supplies to the global market limited the gains in oil prices.
US President Trump has issued new, conflicting signals regarding the timetable for military action against Iran. At a White House press briefing on Friday, when asked why he had postponed action against Iran until after the midterm elections rather than acting immediately, Trump said it was “possible” the US would act immediately. Just the day before, on Thursday, Trump had explicitly stated that the US “will not attack Iran before the midterm elections” and described the current negotiations with Iran as “productive.” This abrupt reversal has made it increasingly difficult for outside observers to grasp the direction of White House policy, while keeping investors on high alert over uncertainty in the Middle East. (Wall Street CN)
Trump said on social media that his call with Putin was very successful, and that Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 mt of diesel, another 500,000 mt in November, followed by an additional 1 million mt, and a further 3 million mt depending on refinery conditions. Ultima Markets senior analyst Elon Gu believes that if attacks from Iran continue to escalate and the White House reconsiders military action, oil prices could spike rapidly, especially given that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is already far below pre-war levels. As the best indicator of physical crude oil supply-demand tightness, Dated Brent prices surged this week, approaching the post-war historical high once again. (Wall Street CN)
In addition, according to The Washington Post, the US blockade of Iranian ports has driven Iranian oil exports to extremely low levels, costing Tehran billions of US dollars in monthly revenue. Although the economic pressure has not yet forced Iran to make concessions in negotiations, a senior Trump administration official said the White House still believes time is on America’s side. The official explained that during previous rounds of economic pressure, Iran was able to ease the strain by relying on oil revenue, but the port blockade now being enforced by the US is eliminating that room for maneuver and steadily strengthening the impact of sanctions. In the Trump administration’s view, blocking Iranian oil exports will continue to erode Tehran’s ability to withstand economic pressure. So far, however, the economic losses have not translated into Iranian concessions on key negotiating terms, and the impasse between the US and Iran remains unbroken. (Jin10 Data APP)
The US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued General License No. 135 on October 9 local time, authorizing transactions involving Russian-origin diesel that had previously been prohibited under sanctions against Russia, covering sales, delivery, discharge, and import, and explicitly permitting import into the US. The license is valid until 12:01 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on April 7, 2027 (12:01 p.m. Beijing time on April 7, 2027). However, the license still prohibits the transfer of funds from accounts opened by the Central Bank of Russia, the Russian National Wealth Fund, or the Russian Ministry of Finance at US financial institutions. (Jin10 Data APP)
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that Russia will immediately begin lifting diesel export restrictions, ahead of the original plan. According to him, Russia is willing to supply additional diesel to the US and all partners in October, with 300,000 mt in October, rising to 500,000 mt in November and 1 million mt in December. Novak also noted that the Russian market will be fully supplied with diesel as well. The Russian government had previously decided to extend the export ban on products from diesel, marine fuel, and gasoil producers until October 31. (CCTV)
As Category 3 Hurricane Isaias approaches the US Gulf Coast, local oil producers have suspended approximately 1.46 million barrels per day of crude oil production, accounting for 72% of the region's total output. The US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management said that as of 12:00 noon ET on Friday (00:00 Beijing time on October 10), personnel from 129 offshore platforms had been evacuated, and two mobile drilling rigs had been moved out of the storm's path. BP has shut in production at its Thunder Horse and Na Kika platforms and evacuated non-essential personnel from three other platforms. Supply disruptions have pushed up crude oil prices in the Gulf of Mexico, with Mars crude trading at a premium of about $3 per barrel to WTI crude, and Thunder Horse crude maintaining a premium of more than $4 per barrel for two consecutive trading days. (Jin10 Data APP)
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