[SMM Analysis] NEV retail in China under pressure, exports double YoY, going global becomes automakers' biggest growth

I. "September peak season" total volume: MoM recovery insufficient to offset YoY pressure, internal combustion engine vehicles the biggest drag

CPCA data shows September narrow-definition passenger vehicle retail sales of approximately 1.69 million units, up 9.7% MoM but down 24.6% YoY—the YoY decline widened further from August (retail sales of 1.541 million units, -23.6% YoY), with the core drag coming from internal combustion engine vehicles: September NEV retail sales were approximately 1.11 million units, up about 10% MoM, while internal combustion engine vehicle retail sales were only about 580,000 units, extending a deep YoY decline of around 40%. NEV retail penetration rate reached 65.7%, up further from 65.2% in August. Looking at the weekly pace, daily average retail sales in the first two weeks of September were 35,000 and 44,000 units, rising to 52,000 units in the third week, before pulling back to 54,000 units per day in the fourth week—a -42% YoY figure—due to disruption from the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, with demand concentrated and shifted to the final week before the National Day holiday.

II. September sales rankings: BYD leads by a wide margin, new force rankings undergo dramatic reshuffling  

Company announcements reveal even sharper divergence. BYD's total September sales reached 463,600 units (+16.98% YoY), including 180,700 units sold outside China (+154% YoY) and 282,900 units in domestic sales (a new high since February, but down 12.97% YoY). Among the new forces, Leap Motor delivered 105,656 units across all categories, up 59% YoY, maintaining its position above the 100,000-unit threshold for three consecutive months since first crossing it in July, firmly holding the top spot among new forces; XPeng delivered 41,256 units (+5% MoM); Xiaomi deliveries exceeded 40,000 units, with the extended-range model "Pengcheng," which began deliveries on September 12, delivering over 10,000 units in its first month; NIO delivered 37,408 units (+7.7% YoY, with the main brand up 55.3%); Zeekr grew 103.85% YoY to 37,200 units. In contrast, Harmony Intelligent Mobility Alliance (HIMA) delivered 37,490 units in September, down about 29% YoY and marking three consecutive months of pullback, with the three new models launched on September 28 not yet translating into sales; Li Auto delivered 31,817 units, down 6.3% YoY and down about 15.6% MoM. SAIC (406,000 units), Chery (292,300 units), and Geely (292,200 units) formed the traditional leading group.

 III. Weak retail, strong exports: going global becomes the key engine to offset the domestic slowdown

 The most distinctive structural feature in September was "domestic pressure, overseas rescue." CPCA data for September 1-27 shows passenger vehicle retail sales at -29% YoY and producer wholesale at -30% YoY, while cumulative NEV wholesale remained at +7% YoY—exports are the most important explanatory factor in the divergence between retail and wholesale. From January to August, NEV exports reached 3.435 million units, up 1.2x YoY (CAAM). At the enterprise level, Chery's September overseas sales hit a new high of 207,800 units (+45.6% YoY); BYD's overseas sales were 180,700 units (+154% YoY); Geely's overseas sales were 106,700 units (+162% YoY, exceeding 100,000 units for four consecutive months), and the company has announced a push toward a full-year target of 1 million units in overseas sales; Great Wall's overseas sales accounted for more than half of its total. For the new forces, Leap Motor exported over 27,000 units in September, completing its full-year overseas target ahead of schedule; XPeng has over 500 overseas stores, and the G9L is planned to enter 64 countries and regions. Exports have become the core growth driver to offset the domestic retail slowdown and underpin power battery installation demand.

The China Automobile Dealers Association's September auto consumption index was 88.9, up MoM (with the showroom traffic sub-index at 91.7), signaling that the market is expected to recover further in October. At the same time, some orders are shifting toward delivery: delivery cycles for popular new models are lengthening (Xiaomi N90 is expected to take 11-13 weeks), and some National Day holiday orders may be fulfilled later in Q4, supporting the October-December delivery curve while smoothing monthly elasticity; at the Paris Auto Show opening on October 12, the overseas launch of Leap Motor D19 and XPeng G9L, as well as the European debut of Li Auto i6, are expected to continue catalyzing export growth. However, the pace of cooling after the "October peak season" warrants caution.