National Day holiday PV industry chain ends with "stable prices", production cuts and destocking continue; post-holiday focus on production cut implementation and restocking pace [SMM PV Holiday Review]

SMM, October 7:

Silicon metal: In the silicon metal market around the National Day holiday, prices saw September futures and spot prices fall first and then rise, shifting to a stagnant and stable trend before the holiday. SMM east China oxygenated 553# silicon was at 9,400-9,500 yuan/mt. In futures, the most-traded SI2611 contract rebounded from a low of 8,445 yuan/mt in mid-to-late September, closing at 8,565 yuan/mt on the last trading day before the holiday (September 30), drifting higher throughout the month with narrowing fluctuations. In terms of supply, production cuts at large plants in Xinjiang ran parallel with production increases at some silicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Gansu in September, with the total reduction being larger. September production fell 11% MoM and 25% YoY. For October, considering production resumptions in September, large-scale production cuts in Sichuan and Yunnan occurring in late October, and the impact of production days, October silicon metal production is expected to edge up MoM. Overall, before the holiday, silicon metal showed a pattern of "accelerated destocking and stagnant prices": supply reductions, inventory drawdowns, and cost support provided a floor for prices, but pre-holiday wait-and-see sentiment suppressed futures fluctuations, with both futures and spot closing in narrow ranges. Post-holiday trends will focus on changes in futures capital sentiment, the pace of production cuts at southwestern silicon enterprises during the dry season, the implementation of polysilicon production cuts, and downstream restocking sentiment and pace.

Polysilicon: During the National Day holiday, China's polysilicon market was basically stable, with N-type material prices in the range of 39-43 yuan/kg. New transactions during the domestic holiday were relatively limited, with a few large orders concluded earlier and delivered normally during the holiday. Upstream and downstream mainstream views still diverged somewhat, with a heavy wait-and-see sentiment in the market. After the holiday, some western bases have expectations for resuming production, partially offsetting the reduction in October caused by the end of the rainy season. Overall, October production cuts are relatively large, and there are still expectations for further cuts afterward. However, whether prices will rise subsequently still depends on how much room downstream prices and costs give to upstream prices.

Wafer: Wafer prices remained stable during the holiday, with N-type 183 wafers at 0.994-1.002 yuan/piece, 210R wafers at 1.026-1.044 yuan/piece, and 210mm wafers at 1.119-1.145 yuan/piece. Plants maintained normal production schedules and delivered pre-holiday orders, with few new purchase orders added during the holiday. Upstream and downstream players were mainly in a wait-and-see mode, and market trading activity was low. In the short term, wafer prices are expected to hold steady. After the holiday, key tracking points include polysilicon prices, the recovery of downstream cell purchases, and the pace of inventory destocking.

High-purity quartz sand: Recently, quartz sand prices and supply-demand conditions have basically remained stable. For crucibles, October production schedules continued to decline. To meet October demand, crucible enterprises mainly relied on inventory deliveries, and actual production is expected to diverge from wafer production schedules, so demand for quartz sand will remain on a declining trend. During the holiday, the market saw almost no transactions, but the sell-off of imported sand is expected to further impact domestic sand prices. Some domestic sand producers have already begun shifting to channel sales, with sand volumes starting to disperse toward light sources, quartz components, and other applications, though prices remain low. Under the dual pressure of costs and demand, quartz sand scheduled production is expected to weaken again after the holiday.

Solar cell: During the National Day holiday, trading in China's solar cell market was extremely thin, with quotes across all specifications holding at pre-holiday levels and prices showing no notable fluctuations. TOPCon 183, 210R, and 210N solar cell prices currently stand at 0.298–0.301 yuan/W, 0.305–0.314 yuan/W, and 0.288–0.295 yuan/W, respectively. Pre-holiday centralized stockpiling by module enterprises provided phased support to demand, with 210R performing relatively firm, driven by export orders and tight inventory, while 183 and 210N remained largely stable. After the holiday, module enterprises are likely to remain focused on immediate needs and a wait-and-see stance, with short-term prices expected to move sideways. One risk to watch is that the export growth previously driven by expectations around the US Section 232 policy lent some support to 210R, but as phased orders are gradually delivered, the support from export orders for 210R prices may weaken at the margin. In addition, if the recovery in domestic module scheduled production and purchasing after the holiday falls short of expectations, solar cell prices also face a risk of pulling back slightly.

Module: The module market saw little change during the National Day holiday, with distributed procurement also largely paused and expected to resume after the holiday. Notably, some returned modules from overseas have recently come back, which is expected to have some impact on the distributed market after the holiday. However, as overall distributed demand declines, distributed purchasing volumes are expected to gradually shrink going forward, and module enterprises will shift their Q4 focus to the centralized market. On the centralized side, no new projects have been opened for bidding on the demand side, leaving demand largely unchanged. Most module producers maintained production during the holiday to build inventory for post-holiday centralized order deliveries. In addition, overseas centralized orders have recently shown improvement, and October is expected to present a scenario of strong demand both inside and outside China. That said, a cautious view is warranted, as actual purchasing demand growth in October remains relatively limited overall, with downstream purchasing already having started gradually on a small scale earlier. On the inventory side, inventories began to rise under the holiday impact, but once transportation recovers, inventories are expected to maintain a slight downward trend.

PV glass: During the glass holiday, supply remained essentially unchanged due to the strong continuous-production nature of furnaces. On the demand side, some module enterprises reduced operating rates, but the overall impact on October scheduled production was relatively small. On the inventory side, with transportation restrictions during the holiday, days of inventories at glass enterprises began to rise, increasing by about 4 days compared with pre-holiday levels. However, as post-holiday restocking demand from module purchasing enters the market, days of inventories for glass are expected to continue declining. For the October glass price forecast, top-tier players in the market are mainly holding prices steady, but some small producers, with inventories bottoming out, have expectations of further raising quotes. October glass quotes are expected to be at 10.5-11 yuan/m², while actual mainstream transaction prices are expected to be at 10-10.5 yuan/m².

End-user: On October 1, the Qinghai Hainan Prefecture PowerChina Gonghe 1 GW PV-CSP project achieved full-capacity grid connection. The project consists of 900 MW PV plus 100 MW tower molten salt CSP, with an expected annual on-grid electricity volume of 2.2 billion kWh. The CSP energy storage can shift daytime PV electricity to the evening peak, reflecting the evolution of large-scale bases from simply expanding installed capacity toward "PV + long-duration dispatchability." Construction of projects during the same period did not fully stall due to the holiday. For example, the Zhejiang Longyou PV project planned to start construction on October 1, and projects such as the Fujian Huaneng Zhangpu Fotan 150 MW fishery-solar hybrid and the Zhejiang Linhai 28.5 MW agrivoltaic project continued construction or engineering procurement during the holiday. Overall, the main signals from the holiday market remain accelerated grid connection of large-scale bases, CSP/energy storage synergizing with PV to improve consumption capacity, while distributed projects such as agrivoltaic and fishery-solar hybrid projects maintained a normal construction pace.

Power market: During the October 1-7 National Day holiday, China's power market overall showed the characteristics of "industrial load pulling back in phases, primary energy costs holding up well, and market price mechanisms continuing to transmit to end-users." Industrial production activity slowed during the holiday, and electricity load pulled back compared with pre-holiday levels. Meanwhile, autumn cooling further weakened refrigeration demand, exerting some downward pressure on spot electricity prices. On the primary energy side, thermal coal prices overall held up well, with winter stockpiling demand and supply-side factors supporting coal prices. LNG prices also remained at a relatively high level, and fuel costs continued to support the marginal cost of thermal power. On the policy side, Shandong implemented new time-of-use periods for industrial and commercial users and related electricity price policies starting October 1, further strengthening peak, valley, and deep valley price signals to guide users in adjusting their electricity consumption curves. The scale of trading in the national power market continued to expand, and the transmission of spot prices to the retail side and end-user side further deepened. Overall, weakening holiday demand suppressed spot prices, but primary energy costs still provided some bottom support. Loose supply-demand conditions and firm fuel costs became the main contradiction in the power market during the National Day holiday.

EVA: During the National Day holiday, PV-grade EVA spot prices held at 11,000-11,200 yuan/mt, with no new price changes yet. On the cost side, crude oil fell compared with the earlier period, and there is limited room for further raw material increases for now. Top-tier petrochemical producers also postponed this week's settlement prices until after the holiday. Market wait-and-see sentiment is strong, with participants awaiting settlement price guidance. EVA price momentum is expected to continue weakening in the short term.

POE: Domestic delivered POE prices in China remained stable at 13,000-13,100 yuan/mt, with no significant transaction fluctuations in the market during the holiday. After earlier POE quote increases, downstream acceptance of high-priced supply remained weak, and a price spread still existed between quotes and actual transaction prices, creating resistance to upward cost pass-through. The POE market is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term after the holiday.

PV film: Film pricing remained at 28,600-28,800 yuan/mt, with the previous monthly price negotiations largely settled. Supported by EVA particle price increases and orders, monthly negotiated prices were raised somewhat. During the holiday, film manufacturers continued to follow up on orders on hand, with no significant price adjustments. Subsequent focus will be on post-holiday particle price changes and downstream production schedule pace.

Overseas market review:

Modules: This week, overall order-taking in overseas markets continued the trend seen before the National Day holiday, with performance remaining mediocre. Demand in the European market gradually improved, but affected by PPA prices and electricity price fluctuations, the overall market recovery remained limited. Currently, for China port FOB quotes, TOPCon 182mm module prices were $0.104-0.109/W, 210mm and 210R prices were both $0.105-0.110/W, and high-power 210R prices were $0.110-0.116/W. BC module 210R (66/72-cell) prices were $0.115-0.126/W, and 54-cell prices were $0.131-0.142/W. India DCR modules remained in an inventory buildup phase, with inventory at approximately 13.45GW, and inventory pressure pushed prices down slowly. Currently, India-made DCR TOPCon module prices were $0.233-0.251/W. As external demand gradually weakened, non-DCR TOPCon module prices remained at $0.136-0.150/W.

During the National Day holiday, the overseas PV market released multiple policy and project developments, mainly concentrated in US patent litigation and subsidy rule adjustments, changes in European PV revenue and grid connection mechanisms, and India's power grid and energy storage investment expansion. The following is compiled based on public reports as of October 6, 2026, with some items announced at end-September and intensively reported during the holiday.

US: The US Department of Agriculture issued new REAP rural energy subsidy rules, excluding PV and wind power projects on farmland from subsidy eligibility and strengthening requirements for equipment sourcing and actual project operating data. The new rules will take effect on October 16. At the state level, California signed a balcony PV bill on September 30, allowing compliant plug-in PV equipment with AC output not exceeding 1,200W per household, effective January 1, 2027. From these changes, supply chain compliance and subsidy application requirements in the US market have further increased, while small distributed products present new market opportunities.

European policy: During the holiday, PV policy adjustments in Europe mainly centered on project returns and grid access. France's 2027 budget bill proposes to review the S21 power purchase contracts for some 300–500 kWp projects and extend the mechanism of suspending or curtailing generation during periods of negative electricity prices to projects exceeding 100 kW; it is still at the legislative stage. Germany published the MiSpeL rules on October 1, allowing energy storage to simultaneously store PV power and grid power on the premise of distinguishing the source of electricity, while retaining eligibility for renewable energy subsidies where conditions are met, but the relevant implementation transition period extends to the end of September 2027. Denmark adjusted its grid connection priority order, listing renewable energy as the second priority category and energy storage as the third category. Going forward, project advancement in Europe still requires close attention to return calculations, energy storage allocation, and actual grid connection conditions.

India: Before the holiday, the Indian cabinet approved the third phase of the Green Energy Corridor on September 30, and related news was widely reported during the holiday. The total investment of the program is approximately 1.86 trillion rupees, and it plans to support the transmission of up to 135 GW of renewable energy by fiscal year 2032–33, along with the deployment of 50 GWh of battery energy storage. Meanwhile, the state of Maharashtra proposed a draft for energy storage allocation with new energy grid connections, including a requirement of 50% of grid connection power for 2 hours, or 25% for 4 hours; it has not yet been formally implemented.