Module Deliveries Support Near-Term Frame Demand; Aluminum Prices Under Pressure Amid Post-Holiday Inventory Buildup and Demand Weakening Risks [SMM Analysis]

Published: Sep 30, 2026 18:38 (GMT+8)

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SMM, September 30:

PV aluminum extrusion: This week, operating rates at sampled PV frame enterprises remained broadly stable. Some PV frame enterprises in Hebei and Anhui reported that their October production schedules were basically flat versus September. During the National Day holiday, production lines will run normally to ensure on-time delivery of early-October orders, extending the pre-holiday rush to meet delivery deadlines. From the downstream module side, October module scheduled production is expected to see limited MoM change. With centralized projects gradually requiring delivery and growth in new overseas orders, total module production is expected to rebound slightly, and demand for PV frame support remains intact in the near term. Overall, the October delivery window provides phased support for frame enterprises' operating rates, which are expected to remain stable in the short term. In the medium term, demand is expected to weaken marginally after the module delivery season ends, limiting upside for frame operating rates.

Raw material prices: During the period (2026.9.28-2026.9.30), the SMM A00 weekly average price stood at 24,103.3 yuan/mt, down 0.7% from the previous week. Overall, macro sentiment remained bearish. On fundamentals, aluminum ingot inventory is expected to see a slight buildup shortly after the holiday, processing fees for some downstream products still face downside risk, and ingot casting expectations have risen further. With inventory buildup and near-term demand weakness, aluminum prices face pressure on the upside; meanwhile, social inventory of aluminum ingot has gradually destocked to normal levels, limiting downside. The most-traded SHFE aluminum contract is expected to trade in the range of 23,300-24,300 yuan/mt in the week after the holiday; LME aluminum is expected to trade in the range of $3,150-3,250/mt. Going forward, close attention should be paid to China's aluminum semis exports and operating rates at aluminum rod and aluminum billet producers.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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