Overseas Metallurgical Alumina Output Rebounds 2.3% MoM in September; Australia's Production Cuts Persist in October

SMM, September 30 –

According to SMM statistics, total overseas metallurgical alumina output in September 2026 edged up 0.15% YoY and rebounded about 2.3% MoM. Supply in September showed a moderate recovery, mainly driven by Brazil's Alunorte returning to full-capacity operation in September after a temporary production cut in late August, combined with the continued ramp-up of Al Taweelah in the Middle East. However, regional disruptions have not been fully eliminated: geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East intensified again in mid-September, and the operating status of aluminum smelters in Bahrain and Qatar remains to be observed. Overall, September output rebounded MoM but only edged up YoY, with market supply maintaining a recovery trend.

By region:

South America/Brazil: The Alunorte alumina refinery continued full-capacity operation in September, contributing a full month of output. The 100,000–120,000 tonnes of production temporarily curtailed in late August due to a natural gas supply interruption notified by gas supplier CELBA was fully recovered in September. Combined with stable operation at other Brazilian alumina refineries, South American output surged 28.8% MoM in September, becoming the single largest driver of the overseas output rebound. After ANP approved Alunorte as an independent natural gas importer, the stability of its feedstock supply has been further enhanced.

Middle East: Emirates Global Aluminium's Al Taweelah smelter continues its restart. As of August 22, about 25% of the plant's 1,262 electrolytic cells had been restarted, with output expected to return to pre-accident levels by Q1 2027. Restart capex is approximately US$400 million, with most spending expected to be completed in 2026. The new recycling plant is currently operating at 10% load, targeting full capacity by the end of Q4. In September, output in the Other Asia/Middle East region rebounded 5.0% MoM, but due to the base effect of the 2024 accident, it was still down 16.5% YoY compared with September 2025. In addition, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East intensified again in mid-September, and the operating status of Middle Eastern smelters such as Bahrain's Alba and Qatar's Qatalum remains to be observed.

Africa/Guinea: Guinea's bauxite company CBG sees new financing possibilities for its planned alumina refinery project. Guinea's Ministry of Mines recently said officials held talks with the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and the U.S. Export-Import Bank regarding the refinery project planned by CBG, adding a U.S. financing channel to Guinea's strategy of expanding domestic bauxite processing capacity. Previously, international capital had long been the main support for Guinea's bauxite processing strategy — several Asian and European companies have announced plans in recent months to develop new processing plants linked to their mines in Guinea, with estimated project investments of about US$1 billion each. CBG previously said it plans to start construction of the refinery before the end of 2026; the Guinean government holds a 49% stake in the joint venture, while Alcoa and Rio Tinto also hold partial stakes as partners. In addition, the repair of the Friguia railway continued in September, and bauxite shipments from Guinea's main ports remained at a high level.

India: Odisha's aluminum industry has secured a key raw material supply guarantee. The state government held a meeting with Vedanta executives and promised to provide local bauxite for Vedanta's alumina refinery in Lanjigarh, Kalahandi district, and discussed accelerating Vedanta's proposed 1 trillion rupee (about US$10.42 billion) aluminum industry investment project in the state. For Vedanta's integrated aluminum business in Odisha, securing bauxite supply is crucial, as the Lanjigarh plant is its main alumina production base; this raw material supply commitment comes as the state plans to add large-scale aluminum and alumina capacity.

Indonesia/Russia: Rusal is cooperating with an Indonesian company to build an integrated bauxite-alumina facility. The Indonesian President confirmed the partnership at the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF-2026). Rusal had previously signed a memorandum of cooperation intent with Indonesia's PT Arbaya Energi. In addition, Rusal is exploring the sale of its Windalco bauxite and alumina business in Jamaica, including the Ewarton alumina refinery in St Catherine, bauxite mines, and the Port Esquivel shipping terminal, and may also cover its bauxite assets in Guyana. According to Rusal's annual report, its Jamaican operations recently produced 1.565 million tonnes of bauxite and 396,000 tonnes of alumina, with the alumina output accounting for less than 6% of Rusal's total output.

Looking ahead to October, disruptions on the overseas metallurgical alumina supply side have not been fully eliminated: an alumina producer in Australia has implemented production cuts, continuously suppressing output in the region; if Middle East geopolitical conflicts escalate again and the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, Middle East alumina output and global shipping costs will come under further pressure. However, Brazil's Alunorte maintaining full-capacity operation and the continued restart of Al Taweelah in the Middle East will still contribute stable incremental supply. Overall, overseas metallurgical alumina output in October is expected to remain in the range of 4.98–5.02 million tonnes, with market supply overall still expected to remain loose.