China copper cathode production continues to be revised downward amid maintenance and production cuts [SMM Analysis]

       In September 2026, China's copper cathode production was 1.1206 million mt, down 2.3% MoM and down 0.04% YoY. Cumulative production from January to September was 10.4155 million mt, up 355,700 mt from the same period last year, up 3.54% YoY. Copper cathode production continued to decline in September, mainly due to concentrated smelter maintenance, tight blister copper and copper anode supply, and lower by-product earnings such as sulphuric acid, which reduced effective capacity utilization rates. Overall, China's smelters had not yet shown significant production cuts in September, and the decline in production was mainly caused by maintenance. According to SMM calculations, the impact from maintenance on China's smelters in September 2026 was 44,800 mt.

       In terms of smelting profitability, according to SMM calculations, smelters purchasing copper concentrates on the spot market as raw material for production recorded an average monthly loss of 4,129.28 yuan/mt in September, expanding by about 2,000 yuan/mt MoM. Given that the downward trend in copper concentrate TCs has not yet reversed, coupled with weaker sulphuric acid prices, losses are expected to widen further in October, potentially reaching 5,000 yuan/mt.

       Looking ahead to October, the policy environment for copper scrap remains tight, and with concentrated smelter maintenance, the impact from maintenance is expected to increase further. Meanwhile, against the backdrop of tight raw material supply and widening smelting losses, some domestic smelters have shown willingness to reduce copper cathode production and have taken corresponding measures. Proactive production cuts are expected to become a new factor driving the decline in October production. SMM expects China's copper cathode production in October to be 1.0847 million mt, potentially falling to the lowest level of 2026. In terms of new capacity, two smelters with refining capacity of 300,000 mt each came online in September and October, but as they are still in the capacity ramp-up stage during the initial production period, their contribution to monthly production is relatively limited.

       Entering November-December, as some enterprises complete maintenance and newly commissioned enterprises gradually release capacity, China's copper cathode production is expected to rebound.