Market sentiment cautious before National Day, scrap battery prices fluctuate narrowly [SMM scrap battery weekly review]

SMM, September 30:

This week was a transitional window between the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day holiday, with only three trading days. On the first day after the Mid-Autumn Festival, most smelters lowered their scrap battery purchase prices by 50-100 yuan/mt, with some cutting prices by a cumulative 100-150 yuan/mt; over the following two days, most smelters held prices flat pending the post-National Day period, with limited overall fluctuations. According to an SMM survey, more than 70% of recyclers saw their scrap battery recycling volume pull back WoW this week, with declines of roughly 50-60%, and some recyclers even reported zero purchases on a single day. The main reason was that after scrap battery suppliers concentrated their shipments last week, upstream retail outlets had already worked through a batch of their available supply; combined with weaker lead prices and some outlets holding back from selling, recyclers were also reluctant to raise prices to buy more amid an unclear lead price trend, with most maintaining low inventory operations in their purchasing and sales models. Smelter arrivals of scrap battery raw material subsequently pulled back, falling about 40-50% WoW; however, because scrap battery raw material had previously arrived at plants in concentrated volumes and raw material inventories were relatively ample, smelters still mainly purchased as needed before the holiday and showed little inclination to adjust prices. Looking ahead to the National Day holiday, retail outlets may accumulate some supply during the break; after the holiday, the key focus will be on smelter inventory digestion and restocking-driven price adjustments, the pace of the rebound in scrap battery retirement volumes in October, and the transmission from LME lead and other overseas markets during the holiday to scrap battery prices and supplier sentiment. In the short term, scrap battery prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly along with lead prices.