September actual operating rate of copper rod enterprises remained under pressure

Data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) on September 29 showed that at the end of June 2026, China's outstanding external debt in both domestic and foreign currencies stood at $2,498.2 billion, up $86.1 billion, or 4%, from the end of March 2026.

[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Looking ahead to the post-holiday period, on September 30, SMM recorded social inventory in Shanghai at 49,200 mt, down 2,000 mt WoW; social inventory in Jiangsu stood at 12,700 mt, down 2,600 mt WoW. Before the holiday, downstream processing enterprises had largely completed holiday stockpiling and arranged cargo pick-up schedules with suppliers in advance for the holiday period. On the supply side, arrivals of imported copper have remained limited recently, and smelter shipments have largely matched downstream pick-up demand, keeping the overall market in a tight balance. Post-holiday, as holiday stockpiles are consumed, downstream processing enterprises may have some restocking demand, but finished product inventories are expected to accumulate during the holiday, and actual purchasing intensity will still depend on whether new orders post-holiday can see a significant pickup. Buyers and sellers are expected to remain in a deadlock over high premiums after the holiday, and spot premiums are likely to stay high in the short term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the extent of social inventory accumulation during the holiday, the recovery of downstream orders after the holiday, and the impact of changes in the backwardation spread between futures contracts on spot premiums.