Spot premiums fell sharply as downstream plants took holidays over the National Day period, reducing pre-holiday restocking volumes [SMM South China copper cathode spot weekly review]

September 30, 2026 news:

Guangdong region: This week, premiums in the region showed a sharp downward trend. As most copper processing enterprises were on holiday for 5-6 days, and downstream enterprises had completed restocking, suppliers had to lower prices to sell, causing premiums to keep falling. As of Thursday, high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 900 yuan/mt, down 500 yuan/mt from last Thursday; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 600 yuan/mt, down 500 yuan/mt from last Thursday; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 540 yuan/mt, down 500 yuan/mt from last Thursday. On Thursday, the price spread for standard-quality copper premiums between Shanghai and Guangdong was Shanghai higher by 250 yuan/mt, and the spread was still not large enough to trigger inter-regional transfers. According to SMM statistics, as of Thursday, total inventory in Guangdong warehouses was 5,900 mt, up 2,900 mt from last Thursday, with warrants totaling 748 mt, up 423 mt. Specifically: This week, warehouse arrivals were 9,800 mt/week, down 3,600 mt/week WoW, far below the annual average (14,000 mt/week). Both domestic and imported copper arrivals were low this week. Warehouse withdrawals were 6,500 mt/week, down 7,500 mt WoW, far below the annual average (14,200 mt/week), as many copper processing enterprises were on holiday for 5-6 days and pre-holiday restocking was sluggish.

Looking ahead to next week, as most end-users will be on holiday, Guangdong inventory is expected to increase by around 12,000 mt during the holiday period. However, since several smelters will enter maintenance after the holiday, supply is expected to decline. Therefore, Guangdong inventory will show a pattern of rising first and then falling after the holiday, and spot premiums are unlikely to see a significant decline.

(The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team. The information provided herein is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.)