Sparse market trading before the holiday; watch for spot inventory changes after the holiday [SMM Shandong copper cathode spot weekly review]

This week marked the final three trading days before the national holiday. Shandong spot copper cathode premiums retreated from highs above 1,000 yuan, with the Thursday average price reported at 700 yuan/mt. Most downstream pre-holiday stockpiling was completed last week, leaving market trading sluggish this week. Spot supply remains tight, with cargoes continuing to flow out of the province, keeping spot prices firm. Looking ahead to the post-holiday period, smelters are expected to release shipments, putting upward pressure on spot premiums. However, domestic social inventory remains at low levels, and demand in the traditional peak season is expected to gradually recover. The downside for premiums is likely to be limited. Going forward, close attention should be paid to post-holiday inventory changes and downstream demand performance.