Inventory Changes of Aluminum Ingots and Billets Around the 2026 National Day [SMM Data]

September 30 news:

[SMM Inventory Statistics] According to SMM statistics, changes in aluminum ingot and aluminum billet inventories (collectively referred to as aluminum inventory) in mainstream consumption areas in China around the National Day holiday from 2020 to 2026: overall destocking before the holiday, with the most concentrated inventory buildup during the holiday, followed by a pullback after the holiday. During the one-week National Day holiday period (September 30 to October 8) from 2020 to 2025, aluminum ingot, aluminum billet, and total aluminum inventories all accumulated, with aluminum ingot increases of 4.0%-17.3%, aluminum billet increases of 12.7%-66.0%, and total aluminum inventory increases of 6.9%-21.2%, with aluminum billet inventory buildup significantly greater than that of aluminum ingot; in the second week after the holiday (October 22), aluminum ingot did not accumulate again except in 2021, while aluminum billet shifted to destocking in all six years.

In 2026, before the holiday, aluminum ingot saw substantial destocking for three consecutive weeks, decreasing by 63,000 mt (-7.9%) on September 17, 55,000 mt (-7.5%) on September 24, and 40,000 mt on September 30 compared with September 24, with a cumulative destocking of 158,000 mt over three weeks, the steepest for the same period in recent years; aluminum billet saw slight destocking in the first two weeks, decreasing by 500 mt and 3,500 mt respectively, and shifted to a slight increase of 500 mt in the third week. On September 10, total aluminum inventory was 949,000 mt (aluminum ingot 796,000 mt, aluminum billet 153,000 mt), the highest for the same period since 2020; by September 30, total aluminum inventory fell to 787,500 mt (aluminum ingot 638,000 mt, aluminum billet 149,500 mt).