SMM Rare Earth Afternoon Trading Comment on September 29

Sept NdFeB output rose modestly; Oct is set for stronger growth, delaying the peak season. Weak demand, tighter export checks, and high prices kept buyers on lean inventories, shifting stocking to Oct amid early Q4 rushes. Top-tier ran near full, mid-tier ~half, bottom-tier flat—polarization deepened. The peak is merely postponed, with Oct’s rebound driven by catch-up orders and restocking.

September NdFeB production rose mildly MoM, with a notable acceleration expected in October, as peak-season characteristics lagged significantly. Enterprises polarized further: leading players ran at full capacity, mid-tier players at moderate levels, and trailing players flat. The traditional "September peak season" failed to materialize in September, mainly due to weak end-user demand, export checks, and downstream operations running on low inventory amid high Pr-Nd prices. The October growth stemmed primarily from the delayed release of September demand and early Q4 stockpiling by end users, reflecting overall seasonal adjustments typical of the peak season.

[SMM Rare Earth Daily Review: Rare earth prices remain generally stable, with Pr-Nd inquiries recovering and transactions improving marginally] In the short term, with only two trading days left before the National Day holiday, downstream magnetic material enterprises still have rigid stocking demand, so the price center of Pr-Nd products retains some support and a significant pullback is unlikely. However, downstream purchases are mainly restocking as needed, and no concentrated volume has emerged yet, so upward breakthroughs also lack sufficient momentum. Prices are expected to consolidate sideways with a firm center. For medium-heavy rare earths, terbium, dysprosium, gadolinium, holmium, and erbium lack independent drivers, and before the holiday they will most likely remain stable, with the entire market maintaining a narrow sideways trend.