Imported arrivals combined with pre-holiday stockpiling winding down, Shanghai spot copper premiums continue to pull back [SMM Shanghai spot copper weekly review]

This week, SHFE copper spot premiums held at last week's high levels, pulling back slightly. Imported copper arrivals during the week replenished the Shanghai market, easing the tightness in spot circulation; some downstream processing enterprises maintained their pre-holiday procurement pace, while those that had completed stockpiling stayed on the sidelines, with overall market activity down WoW.

Looking ahead, SHFE copper spot premiums still have support, but the center is expected to remain under pressure in the short term. Imported supply in Shanghai is gradually being replenished, while new pre-holiday procurement demand is limited, increasing selling pressure on suppliers; the widening backwardation in the next-month spread has also raised the cost for downstream buyers purchasing nearby-month spot cargoes. On the other hand, Shanghai inventory remains at a low absolute level, and Jiangsu arrivals are limited. After the rapid pullback in spot premiums, it remains to be seen whether suppliers will continue to lower prices and whether downstream restocking demand will emerge. Overall, SHFE copper spot prices against the 2610 contract are expected to maintain premiums before the holiday, with the premium center likely to edge lower; post-holiday trends will depend on actual imported copper arrivals, inventory changes, and the pace of downstream procurement recovery.