SMM, September 29:
Today, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the SHFE copper 2610 contract were quoted at premiums of 900 yuan/mt to 1,200 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 1,050 yuan/mt, down 90 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2610 contract bottomed out and then continued to climb. After the open, prices quickly dipped to around 109,720 yuan/mt, then rebounded to around 109,880 yuan/mt and consolidated repeatedly. Subsequently, the price center gradually shifted higher, and after breaking through 109,960 yuan/mt, gains widened. Near midday, prices surged rapidly, reaching an intraday high of around 110,200 yuan/mt, and the morning session closed at 110,190 yuan/mt. The backwardation spread between the current month and next month contracts stood at 610 yuan/mt to 700 yuan/mt, while the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2610 contract for cargoes with invoices dated this month ranged from a loss of 770 yuan/mt to a loss of 590 yuan/mt.
During the day, the sales sentiment for copper cathode in the Shanghai region was 3.18, up 0.03 MoM, and the purchasing sentiment was 2.79, up 0.01 MoM. Historical data can be queried in the database. At the start of early trading, suppliers initially quoted Lufang and Dajiang PC cargoes with invoices dated this month at premiums of 1,190 yuan/mt to 1,200 yuan/mt, and non-registered copper with invoices dated next month at premiums of 680 yuan/mt to 800 yuan/mt. Subsequently, suppliers lowered their quotes, with Lufang at a premium of 1,150 yuan/mt for cargoes with invoices dated this month, JCC, Zijin, and Xikuang quoted at premiums of 1,000 yuan/mt for cargoes with invoices dated next month, and non-registered copper quotes lowered to premiums of 600 yuan/mt to 700 yuan/mt for cargoes with invoices dated next month. In the second session, suppliers further lowered quotes, with Tiefeng, Zijin, and Xikuang at premiums of 900 yuan/mt to 950 yuan/mt for cargoes with invoices dated next month, Honglu quoted at a premium of 900 yuan/mt for cargoes with invoices dated this month, and high-quality copper Jintun large plates traded at premiums of 1,050 yuan/mt to 1,100 yuan/mt.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, suppliers lowered quotes repeatedly during the day to facilitate transactions, and the market transaction center shifted further downward. In early trading, the price spread between the SHFE copper 2610 and 2611 contracts consolidated around a backwardation of 600 yuan/mt before widening rapidly, once expanding to a backwardation of 700 yuan/mt to 710 yuan/mt intraday. Near-month contracts strengthened further relative to deferred contracts, and the backwardation structure between the current month and next month deepened notably, exerting some pressure on spot purchases. Demand side, most downstream processing enterprises have largely completed their pre-holiday stockpiling, and new purchasing demand is relatively limited. Trading activity in the market is expected to decline further tomorrow. As pre-holiday demand gradually weakens, suppliers face increased shipment pressure, and spot premiums in the Shanghai region are expected to continue edging down tomorrow.
![As the National Day holiday approaches, downstream restocking has largely come to an end, and spot premiums have dropped sharply [SMM South China spot copper]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/KtfdC20251217171713.jpeg)
![Supply pressure eases somewhat, demand continues to weaken ahead of the holiday [SMM North China spot copper]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/SiNDH20251217171711.jpg)
