US Treasury yield rising above 5.2% weighs on revaluation; the most-traded SHFE tin contract consolidates on a subdued note [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Tin Midday Commentary for September 28, 2026

1. Price Review

Today, SMM #1 tin spot quotes were 408,400-410,500 yuan/mt, with an average price of 409,450 yuan/mt, down 2,250 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

The most-traded SHFE tin contract consolidated, closing the morning session at 408,400 yuan/mt, down 0.87%.

On the LME, LME tin 3M was temporarily quoted at $53,415/mt, down $1,135/mt from the previous trading day, a decline of 2.08%.

2. Spot Market

The spot market saw sluggish trading today, with the market already in holiday mode for the "two festivals." Downstream pre-holiday stockpiling was largely completed earlier, leaving only sporadic restocking for immediate needs. In the final trading days before the holiday, the spot market is expected to remain sluggish until the market closes.

3. Overall Outlook

In the short term, SHFE tin is in the doldrums under the combined weight of macro pressures and the holiday effect. The high US Treasury yields and US dollar have yet to ease, and pre-holiday capital outflows have amplified futures fluctuations. The price center pulled back to the 408,000 yuan level today. Before the holiday, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to move sideways in the 402,000-414,000 yuan/mt range. During the holiday, markets outside China will trade normally, and attention should be paid to the direction of US Treasury yields and the US dollar, changes in October rate hike expectations, and developments in the Middle East situation. After the holiday, information gaps will be released in a concentrated manner. If interest rates stabilize at highs or geopolitical tensions ease as expected, prices are expected to recover; if tightening trades persist, the price center will remain weak.