Low Pre-Holiday Lead Ingot Inventory and Weak Trading; Lead Prices Expected to Consolidate on a Subdued Note [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary]

Futures:

Last Friday, LME lead continued its recent range-bound consolidation. LME lead opened at $1,935.5/mt in early trading, traded around $1,930/mt during Asian trading hours, then its trading center gradually shifted lower toward $1,920/mt. During European trading hours, the US dollar index weakened, and LME lead stopped falling and rebounded, returning to $1,930/mt before finally closing at $1,930/mt, down 0.13%.

Last Friday, the Chinese market was closed for the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, and SHFE lead will resume normal trading today.

On the macro front:

The Chinese and US heads of state reached an eight-point consensus: they agreed to jointly build a "constructive strategic stability relationship based on respect, fairness, and reciprocity"; trade consultation outcomes include establishing and advancing mechanisms such as a trade council and reaching a "$30 billion" reciprocal tariff reduction arrangement; they agreed to establish a China-US AI dialogue and a communication channel for AI incidents; they agreed that Iran should fulfill its commitment not to develop nuclear weapons, and that no country or institution may impose tolls on international waterways. Other reports said US-Iran negotiations entered a technical phase, which Iranian media denied. Iran proposed a "seven-day plan" but drew a nuclear red line: the Strait of Hormuz is negotiable, but uranium enrichment is non-negotiable. US media reported that Trump rejected Iran's seven-day ceasefire proposal and that bombing is expected to resume after the US election; Trump said the US is expected to continue negotiations with Iran this week.

:

Last Thursday in the lead spot market, the day before the Mid-Autumn Festival, most downstream enterprises were preparing for the holiday, inquiries were sparse, and suppliers were also waiting for the holiday, with only a few continuing to quote warrant cargoes. Meanwhile, premiums for cargoes self-picked up from production site at primary lead smelters were lowered again, and a few suppliers made final pre-holiday sell-offs, with mainstream production-area quotations at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-works basis. For secondary lead, smelters held back from selling at low prices, and mainstream production-area secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-works basis.

Inventory: As of September 25, LME lead inventory stood at 362,525 mt, down 1,500 mt from the previous trading day. As of September 24, total SHFE lead ingot inventory was 59,472 mt, down 9,808 mt from the previous Friday.

Lead price forecast for today:

Due to the National Day holiday in the Chinese market, SHFE lead will have only three trading days. After downstream consumers concentrated their stockpiling over the previous two weeks, spot market trading is expected to weaken further, and upward momentum in lead prices is fading. At the same time, lead ingot inventory continues to decline, providing strong support for lead prices. Lead prices are expected to consolidate before the holiday, but the operating center will shift downward.

Data source statement: Except for public information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.