Destocking of lead ingots before the holiday coexists with expectations of supply recovery, and lead prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note [SMM Lead Market Weekly Forecast]

         Next week, due to China's National Day holiday, SHFE and other exchanges will not conduct night session trading on September 30 and will remain closed until regular trading resumes on Thursday, October 8. On the macroeconomic data front, key releases include US September ADP employment, US August core PCE price index YoY, and US September seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls. The US dollar index continues to climb, and attention will be on how next week's economic data affects it.

For LME lead, China's lead ingot import window has narrowed, and expectations for overseas lead ingot inventory transfers have weakened. Meanwhile, the US dollar index has broken above the 101 high, and lead prices shot up before pulling back. Next week, with the Chinese market on holiday, LME lead trends will lean more toward trading factors in markets outside China. LME lead is expected to trade in a range of $1,895-1,935/mt.

For SHFE lead, next week will have only 3 trading days due to the National Day holiday. After downstream enterprises completed concentrated stockpiling on the consumption side, spot market transactions weakened, and lead price upward momentum faded. At the same time, lead ingot inventory continued its downward trend, providing strong support for lead prices. Lead prices are expected to consolidate before the holiday, but the trading center is expected to shift lower. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade in a range of 16,150-16,450 yuan/mt.

Spot lead price forecast: 16,050-16,300 yuan/mt. On the supply side, primary lead smelters have resumed production after maintenance and will contribute lead ingot output next week. Additionally, due to the large number of pre-ordered downstream purchases earlier, spot lead circulating supply is unlikely to loosen significantly before the holiday. For secondary lead, the scrap "invoicing" issue constrains smelters' procurement and costs, and secondary lead supply is also limited. On the consumption side, downstream enterprises have finished pre-holiday stockpiling, and spot market transactions have further cooled. If lead prices fall significantly, downstream restocking activity cannot be ruled out.