Insufficient demand growth; titanium industry chain to consolidate on a weak note in the short term [SMM Titanium Weekly Review]

Titanium concentrates

This week, domestic titanium concentrates (TiO2≥46%) were quoted at 1,150-1,200 yuan/mt, averaging 1,175 yuan/mt, while TiO2≥47% material was quoted at 1,250-1,300 yuan/mt, averaging 1,275 yuan/mt. Mozambique-origin TiO2≥46% titanium concentrates were quoted at 1,180-1,300 yuan/mt, averaging 1,240 yuan/mt; Nigeria-origin TiO2≥50% titanium concentrates were quoted at 1,350-1,450 yuan/mt, averaging 1,400 yuan/mt; Australia-origin TiO2≥50% titanium concentrates were quoted at 1,400-1,450 yuan/mt, averaging 1,425 yuan/mt. This week, the titanium concentrate market drifted lower from the previous week.

This week, titanium concentrates remained weak and under pressure. Supply side, new domestic titanium concentrate capacity was gradually released, lifting supply pressure. Combined with record-high titanium concentrate imports in August, market supply was ample, and low-priced cargoes continued to weigh on ore prices. Demand side, although titanium dioxide showed signs of recovery, titanium dioxide producers pushed for lower prices and restocked at a slow pace, with overall purchase willingness remaining weak. The strong supply and weak demand pattern continued to suppress titanium concentrate prices, and the market is expected to stay weak and under pressure in the short term.

Titanium dioxide

This week, anatase titanium dioxide quotations closed at 12,000-13,000 yuan/mt, averaging 12,500 yuan/mt; rutile titanium dioxide quotations closed at 12,500-14,800 yuan/mt, averaging 13,650 yuan/mt; chloride-process titanium dioxide prices closed at 15,300-16,800 yuan/mt. This week, prices of all titanium dioxide grades were flat WoW.

This week, the titanium dioxide market remained firm overall. Raw material side, titanium concentrate prices stayed stable, while sulphuric acid continued to grind lower. Although the decline narrowed, there was still no basis for a rebound, and sulphuric acid prices are expected to consolidate at lows. Supply side, titanium dioxide producers' supply rebounded somewhat, with producers actively taking orders. Earlier low-priced cargoes were largely tightened, and bearish market sentiment visibly faded. Demand side, the September peak season effect gradually emerged, with order-taking and shipments improving from earlier levels. However, downstream purchasing sentiment remained cautious, and actual transaction prices did not rise notably, leaving overall market sentiment stable. In the short term, titanium dioxide prices are likely to remain largely stable, and whether they can improve further still depends on the extent of downstream purchasing volume growth.

Titanium slag

This week, acid-soluble titanium slag (Sichuan) was quoted at 3,600-3,800 yuan/mt; mainstream quotations for ordinary 90 titanium slag were 5,200-5,400 yuan/mt.

This week, titanium slag quotations were in a stalemate with sluggish trading, extending the trend of consolidating on a weak note. Although raw material prices trended lower, the losses caused by earlier high costs had not yet been reversed, with the industry remaining loss-making and enterprises under profit pressure. As a result, the overall operating rate on the supply side stayed low, production enthusiasm was insufficient, the pace of new capacity release slowed, and the market did not yet face incremental supply pressure. The demand side also lacked upward drivers, with downstream purchases mainly need-based, weak willingness to rush to buy amid continuous price rise, and an overall sluggish trading atmosphere. In the short term, before the pattern of low operating rates, losses, and weak demand improves materially, titanium slag prices are expected to continue consolidating on a weak note.

Titanium sponge

This week, grade 0 titanium sponge was quoted at 44,000-45,000 yuan/mt, averaging 44,500 yuan/mt; the average FOB price for grade 0 titanium sponge was $6,800/mt; grade 1 titanium sponge was quoted at 43,000-44,000 yuan/mt, averaging 43,500 yuan/mt; grade 2 titanium sponge was quoted at 42,000-43,000 yuan/mt, averaging 42,500 yuan/mt.

This week, the titanium sponge market remained stable. Demand side, domestic trade demand for titanium materials steadily released in September, but due to the large inventory overhang from H1, downstream raw material purchasing progressed slowly. Coupled with stricter export controls and the traditional off-season, export orders for titanium metal products performed poorly. Supply side, northern titanium enterprises gradually advanced new capacity, and with maintenance units resuming operations one after another, national titanium sponge production gradually rose in H2. Titanium sponge prices are expected to consolidate on a weak note.

Titanium materials

This week, TA1 titanium ingot prices were 55-57 yuan/kg, TA2 titanium ingot prices were 54-55 yuan/kg, and TC4 prices were 64-66 yuan/kg. This week, hot-rolled titanium plate (3-8mm) was quoted at 64-68 yuan/kg, titanium welded pipe at 105-110 yuan/kg, pure titanium bar at 105-110 yuan/kg, and pure alloy bar at 120-125 yuan/kg.

The current titanium materials market is split between cold and hot segments, with September peak season expectations falling through and overall demand sluggish. The civil-use end showed clear off-season characteristics, with small and medium-sized casting ingot plants running at less than 50% operating rates. Downstream users only made small-batch need-based restocking, low-end products faced fierce price competition, and the market was oversupplied. The high-end segment moved independently, with aerospace and military industries maintaining high prosperity. Top-tier players had full order books for aerospace-grade titanium materials with extended delivery times, leaving high-end supply tight. In the short term, the pattern of civil-use surplus and high-end shortage is hard to change; upstream titanium sponge approaching the cost line provides bottom support, and titanium material prices are expected to run at lows.

Weekly summary

This week, the titanium industry chain ran with structural divergence. Upstream titanium concentrate supply was ample, and strong supply with weak demand dragged prices lower; the titanium slag industry faced losses, low operating rates, and sluggish trading. Midstream titanium dioxide entered the September peak season, with order-taking and shipments improving MoM, low-priced cargoes shrinking, and prices remaining firm; titanium sponge supply steadily increased, but downstream inventory remained high and purchasing was cautious, leaving prices consolidating on a weak note. The titanium materials market was clearly split, with civil-use demand sluggish and operating rates insufficient, while low-end products faced intense competition; aerospace and military high-end demand stayed highly prosperous, with top-tier players holding full order books. Overall end-use demand had not fully recovered, with most segments seeing only need-based transactions. In the short term, the industry chain is expected to remain divergent and in the doldrums, with attention on whether downstream peak-season restocking materializes.

Outlook

In the short term, the titanium industry chain lacks sustained demand growth and is expected to remain in a weak consolidation pattern overall. Upstream titanium concentrate supply is ample, keeping ore prices under pressure. Titanium slag faces losses and sluggish trading. Titanium dioxide has peak-season order support, but downstream willingness to rush to buy amid continuous price rise is limited, capping upside. Titanium sponge supply continues to be released, and inventory pressure is hard to digest quickly. Titanium materials continue to show structural divergence, with weak civil-use demand dragging on the market and only the aerospace high-end segment maintaining resilience. Without concentrated downstream restocking, prices of most products are unlikely to rebound notably. Going forward, focus on changes in actual end-user transactions.