For the week ended 24 September, the domestic sulphuric acid market extended its downward trend. The SMM China copper smelting acid index was reported at 1,247.5 yuan/mt, down 103.5 yuan/mt from the previous Friday (1,351 yuan/mt), a weekly decline of 7.7%, comparable to the 7.9% drop last week, marking the twelfth consecutive week of pullback. Overall, the window for confirming the bottom in domestic smelting acid has been pushed back again, but the demand-side standoff of "waiting for policy, waiting for winter stockpiling" is building within the industry.
Regional performance
East China: East China followed the decline this week. Anhui cut prices by 200 yuan at the start of the week, with quotes falling to 920-970 yuan/mt; Jiangxi did not add further cuts this week; Shandong's current quotes stand at 1,300-1,400 yuan/mt, with the average price down 150 yuan/mt WoW; Fujian quoted 1,200-1,300 yuan/mt this week, with actual low-end prices already below 1,000 yuan.
South-west China: South-west China edged down slightly this week. Yunnan adjusts prices every half month, and there was no price change this week. Sichuan is focused on the 31 December sulphuric acid export ban policy and the ongoing supply guarantee situation for sulphur and sulphuric acid, with strong bearish sentiment downstream. Guangxi cut prices by 100 yuan/mt on 22 September to 1,450-1,500 yuan/mt, but the October maintenance plan still provides some support to prices.
Central China: Central China was the hardest-hit area for prices breaking below 1,000 yuan this week. Hubei cut prices by 200 yuan/mt on 20 September, triggering concentrated follow-up declines in surrounding areas: Henan made two rounds of cuts on 21 September and 24 September. Some smelters faced rising inventory pressure combined with pre-holiday inventory clearing, with quotes lowered to 950-1,150 yuan/mt. However, after Yuguang Gold and Lead Group completes maintenance in late September, Beifang Copper (Houma) will also start maintenance, providing some support to current acid prices. Hunan's current quotes stand at 910-1,110 yuan/mt, with the average price down 190 yuan/mt MoM.
North-west and North China: Divergence within North-west and North China widened further this week. Gansu quoted 1,200-1,300 yuan/mt this week, significantly lower than previous local quotes, with enterprises facing heavy inventory pressure and expected to make concentrated price adjustments next week. Shanxi has held steady since the 330 yuan/mt cut on 15 September, with no change this week and quotes at 1,040-1,100 yuan/mt. Qinghai maintained the 1,530 yuan/mt level this week, and enterprises will make further price adjustments on 26 September. Xinjiang also held quotes steady at 1,500 yuan/mt this week.
North-east China and Inner Mongolia: North-east China and Inner Mongolia remained largely stable this week, mainly adjusting prices on a monthly basis. In Inner Mongolia, one production line at Yunnan Copper completed maintenance, and another line is about to complete maintenance, bringing regional supply growth. However, due to monthly pricing, there was no change this week, and a notable decline is expected next month. The north-east region also mainly adjusts prices monthly, with no significant changes in major quotes.
International sulphuric acid prices continued to consolidate this week, with the Asian market stable for four consecutive weeks. Sulphuric acid (FOB South Korea) was quoted at $280-320/mt, with an average of $300/mt; sulphuric acid (FOB India) was quoted at $300-350/mt, with an average of $325/mt; sulphuric acid (CFR Indonesia) was quoted at $305-325/mt, with an average of $315/mt.
Sulphur stopped falling and edged up. Sulphur (EXW Shandong) was reported at 7,267-7,750 yuan/mt on 24 September, with an average of 7,508.5 yuan/mt, up 55 yuan/mt from the previous Friday, a gain of 0.74%. Low-priced cargoes were hard to find in the market, sulphur transactions followed rationally, and prices are expected to consolidate in the short term.
Looking ahead, the accelerated bottom-seeking pattern in domestic sulphuric acid is expected to continue in the short term, with the bottom confirmation window pushed further back. Policy expectations on the demand side and winter stockpiling standoff remain key variables for bottom confirmation. National sulphuric acid prices are expected to remain weak and bottom-seeking next week, with the decline likely comparable to this week or slightly narrowing.
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